Teams › Pac-12 · Compare Fresno State with another team
Fresno State
Fresno State returns 46% of last season's minutes and rates #277 on offense and #142 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -9.8 to +4.8.
Why we have them here
Fresno State's preseason projection of -2.3 (No. 221 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -0.2, more than the -1.7 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 190 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.3, about its neighbours' -0.3; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -2.1. It returns 46% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (69%). The projection leans most on Ross Candelino (+2.1), Bradey Henige (+1.2) and Cameron Faas (+0.4); the newcomer who matters most is Ross Candelino, a transfer from Lipscomb, at +2.1. Its 80% range, -9.8 to +4.8, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 41% · Transfer 44% · Other newcomer 15%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 455 | Ross Candelino | G | 6-5 | 4 | Transfer | Lipscomb | 24 | +3.5 | +2.1 |
| 781 | Bradey Henige | F | 7-0 | 2 | Transfer | California Baptist | 22 | +2.2 | +1.2 |
| 1196 | Cameron Faas | G | 6-7 | 3 | Returning | Fresno State | 22 | +0.8 | +0.4 |
| 1558 | DJ Stickman | G | 6-2 | 1 | Returning | Fresno State | 17 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| 1956 | Brian Amuneke | G | 6-5 | 2 | Transfer | Wichita State | 13 | -0.4 | -0.1 |
| 2339 | Gasper Kocevar | C | 6-10 | 1 | Returning | Fresno State | 16 | -0.7 | -0.3 |
| 2461 | Baye Fall | C | 6-11 | 3 | Transfer | Rutgers | 9 | -1.0 | -0.2 |
| 2518 | Dragos Lungu | G | 6-6 | 3 | Transfer | UT Martin | 20 | -0.7 | -0.4 |
| 3269 | KJ Perry | F | 6-3 | 0 | Other newcomer | 10 | -1.6 | -0.4 | |
| 3343 | Nathan Zulemie | F | 6-4 | 0 | Other newcomer | 10 | -1.7 | -0.4 | |
| 3477 | Quentin Rhymes | F | 6-6 | 0 | Other newcomer | 10 | -1.8 | -0.4 | |
| 3953 | Troy Jenkins | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | Fresno State | 8 | -2.5 | -0.5 |
| 4587 | Aram Soqui Urbano | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | Fresno State | 12 | -2.9 | -0.9 |
| 4668 | Matteo Porto | G | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | Fresno State | 8 | -3.8 | -0.7 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 07 | at |  UC San Diego #77 | -12.2 | 16% | |
| Tue Nov 10 | vs |  Georgia State #260 | +7.0 | 71% | |
| Sat Nov 14 | vs |  UC Riverside #252 | +6.5 | 70% | |
| Wed Nov 18 | at |  San José State #187 | -6.1 | 31% | |
| Fri Nov 20 | vs |  Alabama State #340 | +10.7 | 81% | |
| Fri Nov 27 | N |  South Alabama #228 | +0.3 | 51% | |
| Sun Nov 29 | N |  South Dakota State #213 | -0.1 | 50% | |
| Wed Dec 02 | at |  Santa Clara #63 | -14.8 | 12% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | vs |  Southern #235 | +6.5 | 70% | |
| Wed Dec 09 | vs |  Cal State Northridge #227 | +6.2 | 69% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | vs |  San Francisco #189 | +4.4 | 64% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | vs |  Sacramento State #199 | +5.2 | 66% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | vs |  UC Santa Barbara #103 | +0.7 | 52% | |
| Tue Dec 29 | at |  UC Irvine #105 | -10.2 | 21% | |
| Sun Jan 03 | vs |  Washington State #162 | conf | +0.5 | 52% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  San Diego State #81 | conf | -10.4 | 20% |
| Wed Jan 13 | vs |  Gonzaga #14 | conf | -13.4 | 14% |
| Sun Jan 17 | at |  Colorado State #67 | conf | -10.7 | 19% |
| Wed Jan 20 | vs |  Boise State #87 | conf | -4.3 | 37% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs |  Texas State #183 | conf | +1.2 | 54% |
| Wed Jan 27 | at | Gonzaga #14 | conf | -19.3 | 6% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at | Washington State #162 | conf | -5.4 | 33% |
| Thu Feb 04 | vs | Colorado State #67 | conf | -5.5 | 33% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs |  Utah State #29 | conf | -10.0 | 21% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at | Boise State #87 | conf | -10.1 | 21% |
| Thu Feb 18 | at | Texas State #183 | conf | -4.0 | 37% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs |  Oregon State #93 | conf | -3.8 | 38% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | Utah State #29 | conf | -15.8 | 10% |
| Wed Mar 03 | vs | San Diego State #81 | conf | -4.9 | 35% |
| Sat Mar 06 | at | Oregon State #93 | conf | -9.8 | 21% |
Projected margin is from Fresno State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.