Roster Math

Teams › Big Sky · Compare Utah Tech with another team

Utah Tech

Utah Tech returns 64% of last season's minutes and rates #220 on offense and #309 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -12.4 to +2.1.

-5.1
Rating · #275 of 365
-1.5
Offense · #220
-3.6
Defense · #309
-12.4 to +2.1
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
11-18
Projected record · 6 to 16 wins
9-11
Projected in Big Sky · 4 to 13 wins

Why we have them here

Utah Tech's preseason projection of -5.1 (No. 275 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -2.5, about the -2.9 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 193 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.1, about its neighbours' -0.9; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -2.8. It returns 64% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (65%). The projection leans most on Chance Trujillo (+1.1), Britton Berrett (+0.4) and Christian Gibson (+0.0); the newcomer who matters most is Christian Gibson, a freshman, recruit No. 121, at +0.0. Its 80% range, -12.4 to +2.1, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 56% · Transfer 13% · Freshman 5% · Other newcomer 27%

Chance Trujillo+1.1
Britton Berrett+0.4
Christian Gibson+0.0
Boston Harker-0.1
Hunter Schenck-0.3
Aris Rodriguez-0.3
Owen Mackay-0.3
Petros Ragkos-0.3
Marvel Allen-0.3
Dallin Grant-0.3
Kyle Lemke-0.4
Jax Clark-0.4
Preston Vandermyde-0.5
Mark Brown Jr.-0.6
Madiba Owona-0.6
Tanner Davis-0.7
Alex Dupre-1.1
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
878Chance TrujilloG6-41ReturningUtah Tech26+1.6+1.1
1245Britton BerrettG6-52ReturningUtah Tech22+0.7+0.4
1591Christian GibsonF6-50FreshmanHigh school9+0.1+0.0
1950Boston HarkerG6-41ReturningUtah Tech10-0.4-0.1
2981Hunter SchenckF6-22Other newcomer8-1.5-0.3
3108Marvel AllenF6-40Other newcomer8-1.7-0.3
3137Aris RodriguezF6-50Other newcomer8-1.7-0.3
3137Owen MackayF6-50Other newcomer8-1.7-0.3
3137Petros RagkosF6-50Other newcomer8-1.7-0.3
3158Dallin GrantF6-82ReturningUtah Tech8-1.7-0.3
3437Kyle LemkeF6-80Other newcomer8-1.9-0.4
3437Jax ClarkF6-80Other newcomer8-1.9-0.4
3565Madiba OwonaG6-42ReturningUtah Tech18-1.4-0.6
3756Mark Brown Jr.G6-01TransferValparaiso12-1.8-0.6
3765Tanner DavisG6-51ReturningUtah Tech21-1.4-0.7
4168Preston VandermydeG6-52ReturningUtah Tech7-3.0-0.5
4892Alex DupreG6-51TransferPortland State13-3.5-1.1

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02atNew Mexico #50-18.57%
Tue Nov 10atUtah State #29-21.04%
Sat Nov 14atCalifornia #115-11.817%
Thu Nov 19atWashington #92-13.913%
Sun Nov 22NSouth Dakota #322+2.558%
Sat Nov 28atSanta Clara #63-16.89%
Thu Dec 03vsWeber State #233conf+1.254%
Sat Dec 05vsIdaho State #261conf+2.056%
Mon Dec 14vsDenver #240+4.564%
Fri Dec 18atUC Riverside #252-6.729%
Sun Dec 20atCal State Fullerton #236-6.829%
Thu Dec 31atIdaho #251conf-2.941%
Sat Jan 02atEastern Washington #146conf-7.527%
Thu Jan 07vsPortland State #186conf-0.548%
Sat Jan 09vsNorthern Colorado #128conf-2.941%
Thu Jan 14atNorthern Arizona #307conf-1.446%
Sat Jan 16vsSouthern Utah #292conf+3.461%
Mon Jan 18vsMontana #222conf+0.652%
Mon Jan 25atMontana State #138conf-7.527%
Thu Jan 28atIdaho State #261conf-2.741%
Sat Jan 30atWeber State #233conf-4.735%
Thu Feb 04vsEastern Washington #146conf-1.944%
Sat Feb 06vsIdaho #251conf+1.655%
Thu Feb 11vsNorthern Arizona #307conf+3.762%
Sat Feb 13atSouthern Utah #292conf-1.745%
Thu Feb 18atNorthern Colorado #128conf-7.228%
Sat Feb 20atPortland State #186conf-6.231%
Mon Feb 22atMontana #222conf-4.536%
Mon Mar 01vsMontana State #138conf-2.243%

Projected margin is from Utah Tech's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.