Teams › Pac-12 · Compare San Diego State with another team
San Diego State
San Diego State returns 46% of last season's minutes and rates #76 on offense and #89 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +0.4 to +15.3.
Why we have them here
San Diego State's preseason projection of +7.9 (No. 81 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +3.6, less than the +4.4 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 57 at the end of 2025-26) adds +1.7, about its neighbours' +1.3; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +2.1. It returns 46% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (41%). The projection leans most on Nick Anderson (+3.9), Reese Dixon-Waters (+1.8) and Tae Simmons (+1.4); the newcomer who matters most is Nick Anderson, a transfer from Rice, at +3.9. Its 80% range, +0.4 to +15.3, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 44% · Transfer 48% · Freshman 4% · Other newcomer 2%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 135 | Nick Anderson | G | 6-3 | 2 | Transfer | Rice | 26 | +6.0 | +3.9 |
| 551 | Tae Simmons | F | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | San Diego State | 16 | +3.6 | +1.4 |
| 590 | Reese Dixon-Waters | G | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | San Diego State | 27 | +2.6 | +1.8 |
| 727 | Isaiah Sy | F | 6-7 | 2 | Transfer | Oregon State | 25 | +2.2 | +1.4 |
| 1152 | Elzie Harrington | G | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | San Diego State | 18 | +1.0 | +0.5 |
| 1407 | Sean Newman Jr. | G | 6-1 | 3 | Returning | San Diego State | 15 | +0.4 | +0.1 |
| 1946 | Latrell Davis | F | 6-3 | 3 | Other newcomer | 4 | -0.7 | -0.1 | |
| 1949 | Cam Lawin | G | 6-3 | 3 | Returning | San Diego State | 5 | -0.6 | -0.1 |
| 2201 | Zach White | F | 6-5 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 8 | -0.8 | -0.2 |
| 2296 | Raymar Gonzales | G | 6-3 | 1 | Returning | San Diego State | 5 | -1.1 | -0.1 |
| 2846 | Thokbor Majak | F | 7-1 | 1 | Returning | San Diego State | 5 | -1.8 | -0.2 |
| 3143 | Jeremiah Cherry | F | 6-11 | 2 | Transfer | Sacramento State | 19 | -1.1 | -0.5 |
| 3549 | Chance Gladden | G | 6-4 | 1 | Transfer | Boston University | 25 | -1.1 | -0.7 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Nov 03 | vs |  Cal State Fullerton #236 | +15.4 | 89% | |
| Sat Nov 07 | N |  Colorado #85 | +0.1 | 50% | |
| Wed Nov 11 | vs |  Bethune-Cookman #220 | +13.9 | 87% | |
| Sun Nov 15 | N |  New Mexico State #137 | +4.4 | 64% | |
| Wed Nov 18 | vs |  Texas Southern #331 | +18.7 | 93% | |
| Tue Nov 24 | N |  Iowa State #9 | -9.9 | 21% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | vs |  UNLV #139 | +11.1 | 81% | |
| Fri Dec 11 | vs |  Montana State #138 | +10.5 | 80% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | N |  BYU #23 | -7.5 | 27% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | vs |  Long Island University #210 | +13.4 | 86% | |
| Tue Dec 29 | at |  UCLA #28 | -12.3 | 16% | |
| Wed Jan 06 | at |  Oregon State #93 | conf | -2.9 | 41% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  Fresno State #221 | conf | +10.4 | 80% |
| Thu Jan 14 | vs |  Colorado State #67 | conf | +1.9 | 56% |
| Sun Jan 17 | at |  Washington State #162 | conf | +1.7 | 56% |
| Wed Jan 20 | vs |  Texas State #183 | conf | +9.2 | 77% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  Boise State #87 | conf | -3.1 | 40% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at | Colorado State #67 | conf | -4.1 | 37% |
| Thu Feb 04 | vs |  Utah State #29 | conf | -2.3 | 43% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs |  Gonzaga #14 | conf | -5.7 | 33% |
| Thu Feb 11 | at | Texas State #183 | conf | +3.0 | 60% |
| Wed Feb 17 | at | Utah State #29 | conf | -9.0 | 23% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs | Washington State #162 | conf | +8.5 | 75% |
| Thu Feb 25 | vs | Oregon State #93 | conf | +4.0 | 63% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | Gonzaga #14 | conf | -12.4 | 16% |
| Wed Mar 03 | at | Fresno State #221 | conf | +4.9 | 65% |
| Sat Mar 06 | vs | Boise State #87 | conf | +3.6 | 61% |
Projected margin is from San Diego State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.