Teams › Pac-12 · Compare Gonzaga with another team
Gonzaga
Gonzaga returns 22% of last season's minutes and rates #24 on offense and #13 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +12.6 to +27.6.
Why we have them here
Gonzaga's preseason projection of +20.1 (No. 14 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +9.0, less than the +11.3 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 8 at the end of 2025-26) adds +4.3, about its neighbours' +3.6; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +5.5. A stretch at the top of the scale adds +0.9, because a straight-line calibration shrinks elite teams. It returns 22% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (34%). The projection leans most on Xaivian Lee (+4.5), Braden Huff (+4.2) and Davis Fogle (+2.5); the newcomer who matters most is Xaivian Lee, a transfer from Florida, at +4.5. Its 80% range, +12.6 to +27.6, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 20% · Transfer 68% · Freshman 10% · Other newcomer 1%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | Xaivian Lee | G | 6-4 | 4 | Transfer | Florida | 25 | +7.2 | +4.5 |
| 86 | Braden Huff | F | 6-10 | 3 | Returning | Gonzaga | 22 | +7.5 | +4.2 |
| 263 | Davis Fogle | G | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | Gonzaga | 19 | +5.3 | +2.5 |
| 372 | Massamba Diop | C | 7-1 | 1 | Transfer | Arizona State | 24 | +3.9 | +2.4 |
| 421 | Javon Bennett | G | 5-10 | 4 | Transfer | Dayton | 27 | +3.5 | +2.4 |
| 755 | Isiah Harwell | G | 6-6 | 1 | Transfer | Houston | 13 | +2.9 | +0.9 |
| 1144 | Luca Foster | F | 6-5 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 9 | +1.5 | +0.3 |
| 1317 | Chauncey Wiggins | F | 6-10 | 4 | Transfer | Florida State | 21 | +0.5 | +0.3 |
| 1510 | Sam Funches | C | 6-10 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 3 | +0.5 | +0.0 |
| 1547 | Alonzo Metz | F | 5-11 | 0 | Other newcomer | 1 | +0.6 | +0.0 | |
| 1661 | Parker Jefferson | F | 6-9 | 0 | Other newcomer | 2 | +0.0 | +0.0 | |
| 1748 | Skylar Wicks | G | 6-6 | 6 | Transfer | St. Francis (PA) | 24 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| 2369 | Jack Kayil | G | 6-5 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 7 | -1.1 | -0.2 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | N |  Purdue #38 | +4.3 | 64% | |
| Sat Nov 07 | vs |  New Mexico State #137 | +19.5 | 94% | |
| Sat Nov 14 | vs |  LSU #39 | +11.3 | 82% | |
| Tue Nov 17 | vs |  Montana State #138 | +19.2 | 94% | |
| Wed Nov 25 | N |  Kansas State #99 | +11.0 | 81% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | N |  UCLA #28 | +3.1 | 60% | |
| Wed Dec 09 | vs |  Incarnate Word #308 | +25.1 | 98% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | at |  Creighton #41 | -1.9 | 44% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | N |  Michigan State #6 | -1.7 | 44% | |
| Thu Dec 31 | vs |  Cornell #109 | +19.0 | 94% | |
| Wed Jan 06 | at |  Washington State #162 | conf | +10.3 | 80% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  Colorado State #67 | conf | +10.4 | 80% |
| Wed Jan 13 | at |  Fresno State #221 | conf | +13.4 | 86% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  Boise State #87 | conf | +12.5 | 84% |
| Thu Jan 21 | at |  Utah State #29 | conf | -0.3 | 49% |
| Sun Jan 24 | at |  Oregon State #93 | conf | +5.6 | 68% |
| Wed Jan 27 | vs | Fresno State #221 | conf | +19.3 | 94% |
| Sat Jan 30 | N |  Oregon #58 | +6.5 | 70% | |
| Thu Feb 04 | vs |  Texas State #183 | conf | +17.9 | 93% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at |  San Diego State #81 | conf | +5.7 | 67% |
| Wed Feb 10 | at | Boise State #87 | conf | +5.5 | 67% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | Utah State #29 | conf | +6.7 | 70% |
| Wed Feb 17 | vs | Washington State #162 | conf | +17.4 | 92% |
| Sat Feb 20 | N |  Duke #2 | -4.5 | 36% | |
| Thu Feb 25 | at | Texas State #183 | conf | +11.5 | 82% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs | San Diego State #81 | conf | +12.4 | 84% |
| Wed Mar 03 | vs | Oregon State #93 | conf | +12.8 | 85% |
| Sat Mar 06 | at | Colorado State #67 | conf | +4.0 | 63% |
Projected margin is from Gonzaga's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.