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Ohio State
Ohio State returns 37% of last season's minutes and rates #23 on offense and #44 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +8.5 to +23.3.
Why we have them here
Ohio State's preseason projection of +15.9 (No. 27 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +9.2, about the +9.1 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 32 at the end of 2025-26) adds +3.0, about its neighbours' +3.0; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +2.8. A stretch at the top of the scale adds +0.7, because a straight-line calibration shrinks elite teams. It returns 37% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (29%). The projection leans most on John Mobley Jr. (+4.6), Justin Pippen (+4.2) and Jimmie Williams (+3.7); the newcomer who matters most is Justin Pippen, a transfer from California, at +4.2. Its 80% range, +8.5 to +23.3, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 34% · Transfer 42% · Freshman 18% · Other newcomer 6%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79 | John Mobley Jr. | G | 6-1 | 2 | Returning | Ohio State | 27 | +6.8 | +4.6 |
| 115 | Justin Pippen | G | 6-3 | 2 | Transfer | California | 28 | +6.1 | +4.2 |
| 154 | Jimmie Williams | G | 6-5 | 2 | Transfer | Duquesne | 26 | +5.7 | +3.7 |
| 310 | Amare Bynum | F | 6-8 | 1 | Returning | Ohio State | 26 | +4.2 | +2.7 |
| 353 | Anthony Thompson | F | 6-8 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 20 | +4.5 | +2.2 |
| 1028 | Andrija Jelavic | F | 6-11 | 1 | Transfer | Kentucky | 14 | +1.6 | +0.5 |
| 1118 | Ivan Njegovan | C | 7-1 | 2 | Returning | Ohio State | 11 | +1.4 | +0.4 |
| 1334 | LJ Smith | G | 6-4 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 9 | +0.8 | +0.2 |
| 1707 | Braylen Nash | G | 6-4 | 2 | Returning | Ohio State | 4 | -0.1 | +0.0 |
| 1750 | Myles Herro | F | 6-3 | 0 | Other newcomer | 2 | -0.3 | +0.0 | |
| 1915 | Lee Aaliya | F | 6-9 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -0.7 | -0.1 | |
| 1940 | Josh Ojianwuna | F | 6-10 | 4 | Other newcomer | 3 | -0.8 | -0.1 | |
| 2057 | Vuk Lazarevic | F | 7-1 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -1.0 | -0.1 | |
| 2496 | Alex Smith | F | 6-9 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 7 | -1.2 | -0.2 |
| 2636 | Curtis Givens III | G | 6-3 | 2 | Transfer | Memphis | 18 | -0.8 | -0.4 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | N |  BYU #23 | -1.6 | 45% | |
| Fri Nov 06 | vs |  Youngstown State #215 | +18.6 | 93% | |
| Mon Nov 09 | vs |  Marshall #247 | +20.1 | 95% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | at |  UConn #4 | -11.0 | 18% | |
| Mon Nov 16 | vs |  Prairie View A&M #341 | +24.8 | 98% | |
| Thu Nov 19 | vs |  UMBC #180 | +17.4 | 92% | |
| Tue Nov 24 | vs |  Vanderbilt #26 | +6.4 | 70% | |
| Sun Nov 29 | vs |  Lipscomb #118 | +15.5 | 89% | |
| Wed Dec 02 | at |  Nebraska #12 | conf | -6.4 | 30% |
| Sun Dec 06 | vs |  Maryland #64 | conf | +7.4 | 73% |
| Sat Dec 12 | at |  Notre Dame #75 | -0.5 | 48% | |
| Tue Dec 15 | vs |  Stony Brook #283 | +21.0 | 96% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | N |  Kansas #10 | -4.0 | 37% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | vs |  Mississippi Valley State #365 | +34.9 | >99% | |
| Wed Dec 30 | vs |  Oregon #58 | conf | +6.8 | 71% |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  Iowa #33 | conf | -2.7 | 41% |
| Wed Jan 06 | vs |  Northwestern #79 | conf | +8.5 | 76% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  Illinois #5 | conf | -8.2 | 25% |
| Tue Jan 12 | at |  Purdue #38 | conf | -1.6 | 45% |
| Sun Jan 17 | vs |  Penn State #89 | conf | +9.5 | 78% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs |  Michigan State #6 | conf | -1.2 | 46% |
| Tue Jan 26 | vs | Iowa #33 | conf | +4.0 | 63% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at |  Michigan #11 | conf | -6.5 | 30% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at | Penn State #89 | conf | +2.6 | 58% |
| Tue Feb 09 | vs |  Wisconsin #34 | conf | +4.4 | 64% |
| Sun Feb 14 | vs |  Washington #92 | conf | +9.7 | 78% |
| Wed Feb 17 | at |  UCLA #28 | conf | -3.5 | 39% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at |  USC #35 | conf | -1.8 | 44% |
| Thu Feb 25 | vs |  Rutgers #102 | conf | +10.7 | 81% |
| Sun Feb 28 | at |  Indiana #55 | conf | -0.7 | 48% |
| Thu Mar 04 | at |  Minnesota #65 | conf | +0.8 | 53% |
| Sun Mar 07 | vs | Michigan #11 | conf | +0.1 | 50% |
Projected margin is from Ohio State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.