Teams › Big Ten · Compare Penn State with another team
Penn State
Penn State returns 47% of last season's minutes and rates #62 on offense and #141 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -0.5 to +14.0.
Why we have them here
Penn State's preseason projection of +6.8 (No. 89 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +3.5, about the +3.8 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 206 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.1, less than its neighbours' +1.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +3.0. It returns 47% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (42%). The projection leans most on Josh Reed (+2.0), Roberts Blums (+2.0) and Freddie Dilione V (+1.7); the newcomer who matters most is Roberts Blums, a transfer from Davidson, at +2.0. Its 80% range, -0.5 to +14.0, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 44% · Transfer 49% · Other newcomer 5%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 388 | Roberts Blums | G | 6-4 | 2 | Transfer | Davidson | 18 | +4.5 | +2.0 |
| 468 | Josh Reed | G | 6-8 | 2 | Returning | Penn State | 23 | +3.4 | +2.0 |
| 547 | Freddie Dilione V | G | 6-5 | 3 | Returning | Penn State | 21 | +3.1 | +1.7 |
| 742 | Brant Byers | G | 6-8 | 2 | Transfer | Miami (OH) | 22 | +2.3 | +1.3 |
| 767 | Jay Rodgers | G | 6-3 | 6 | Transfer | Central Connecticut | 21 | +2.2 | +1.2 |
| 899 | Dasonte Bowen | G | 6-2 | 4 | Transfer | St. Bonaventure | 24 | +1.6 | +1.0 |
| 1585 | Ivan Juric | F | 7-0 | 1 | Returning | Penn State | 18 | +0.1 | +0.0 |
| 1611 | Melih Tunca | G | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | Penn State | 16 | +0.1 | +0.0 |
| 2796 | Reggie Grodin | F | 6-5 | 0 | Other newcomer | 5 | -1.8 | -0.2 | |
| 2927 | Chris Lotito | F | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | Penn State | 3 | -2.7 | -0.2 |
| 2984 | Thomas Allard | G | 1 | Other newcomer | 5 | -2.1 | -0.2 | ||
| 3805 | Tibor Mirtic | F | 6-9 | 1 | Returning | Penn State | 8 | -2.3 | -0.5 |
| 4663 | Tim Oboh | C | 6-11 | 2 | Transfer | Buffalo | 12 | -3.0 | -0.9 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  Canisius #346 | +18.3 | 93% | |
| Thu Nov 05 | vs |  Chattanooga #226 | +13.1 | 86% | |
| Sun Nov 08 | N |  Pittsburgh #68 | -1.7 | 45% | |
| Tue Nov 10 | at |  Lafayette #342 | +7.0 | 72% | |
| Thu Nov 12 | vs |  Mercyhurst #239 | +13.5 | 86% | |
| Sun Nov 15 | vs |  New Haven #326 | +16.4 | 91% | |
| Wed Nov 18 | vs |  IU Indianapolis #279 | +16.5 | 91% | |
| Wed Nov 25 | N |  Memphis #100 | +1.1 | 54% | |
| Tue Dec 01 | vs |  UAlbany #293 | +15.4 | 90% | |
| Tue Dec 08 | vs |  Nebraska #12 | conf | -5.8 | 32% |
| Sat Dec 12 | at |  Illinois #5 | conf | -14.4 | 12% |
| Wed Dec 16 | vs |  UT Martin #271 | +14.4 | 88% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | N | Lafayette #342 | +11.3 | 82% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | N |  Saint Joseph's #129 | +2.9 | 59% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  Oregon #58 | conf | +1.0 | 53% |
| Wed Jan 06 | at |  Minnesota #65 | conf | -5.2 | 34% |
| Sun Jan 10 | vs |  Northwestern #79 | conf | +2.8 | 59% |
| Wed Jan 13 | at |  Wisconsin #34 | conf | -9.0 | 23% |
| Sun Jan 17 | at |  Ohio State #27 | conf | -9.5 | 22% |
| Wed Jan 20 | vs |  Purdue #38 | conf | -1.0 | 47% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  Iowa #33 | conf | -8.6 | 24% |
| Tue Jan 26 | at |  Michigan State #6 | conf | -14.2 | 12% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs |  Maryland #64 | conf | +1.6 | 55% |
| Tue Feb 02 | vs |  Indiana #55 | conf | +0.5 | 52% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs | Ohio State #27 | conf | -2.6 | 42% |
| Fri Feb 12 | at | Nebraska #12 | conf | -12.6 | 15% |
| Wed Feb 17 | vs |  Washington #92 | conf | +3.8 | 62% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at |  Rutgers #102 | conf | -1.6 | 45% |
| Tue Feb 23 | vs |  Michigan #11 | conf | -6.1 | 31% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at |  UCLA #28 | conf | -9.6 | 22% |
| Tue Mar 02 | at |  USC #35 | conf | -8.4 | 25% |
| Sun Mar 07 | vs | Rutgers #102 | conf | +4.9 | 65% |
Projected margin is from Penn State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.