Teams › Am. East · Compare UMBC with another team
UMBC
UMBC returns 75% of last season's minutes and rates #190 on offense and #179 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -8.1 to +6.7.
Why we have them here
UMBC's preseason projection of -0.7 (No. 180 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +0.2, about the -0.3 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 146 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.3, about its neighbours' +0.3; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -1.5. It returns 75% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (64%). The projection leans most on DJ Armstrong Jr. (+2.8), Jose Roberto Tanchyn (+2.4) and Daylon Dickerson (+0.1); the newcomer who matters most is Sifeng Huan, a freshman, recruit No. 340, at -0.3. Its 80% range, -8.1 to +6.7, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 75% · Freshman 5%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 328 | DJ Armstrong Jr. | G | 6-4 | 2 | Returning | UMBC | 30 | +3.8 | +2.8 |
| 368 | Jose Roberto Tanchyn | F | 6-10 | 3 | Returning | UMBC | 23 | +4.1 | +2.4 |
| 1482 | Daylon Dickerson | F | 6-6 | 2 | Returning | UMBC | 19 | +0.2 | +0.1 |
| 2967 | Sifeng Huan | C | 6-10 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 10 | -1.4 | -0.3 |
| 3038 | Cougar Downing | G | 6-2 | 3 | Returning | UMBC | 18 | -1.1 | -0.5 |
| 3524 | Tim Eze | F | 6-7 | 2 | Returning | UMBC | 11 | -1.7 | -0.5 |
| 3524 | Jake Stout | F | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | UMBC | 10 | -1.8 | -0.4 |
| 3553 | Saahil Thakkar | G | 6-1 | 1 | Returning | UMBC | 8 | -2.0 | -0.4 |
| 3827 | Paul Greene | F | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | UMBC | 12 | -1.9 | -0.6 |
| 3901 | Riley Jacobs | F | 6-8 | 1 | Returning | UMBC | 18 | -1.6 | -0.7 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | at |  George Mason #107 | -9.1 | 23% | |
| Thu Nov 05 | at |  Marist #205 | -4.6 | 35% | |
| Thu Nov 12 | vs |  Morgan State #348 | +11.9 | 83% | |
| Mon Nov 16 | vs |  Iona #282 | +7.9 | 74% | |
| Thu Nov 19 | at |  Ohio State #27 | -17.4 | 8% | |
| Tue Nov 24 | at |  Iowa #33 | -16.1 | 9% | |
| Fri Nov 27 | at |  George Washington #119 | -8.8 | 24% | |
| Wed Dec 02 | at |  Army #314 | +1.0 | 53% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | at |  Delaware State #363 | +5.5 | 67% | |
| Tue Dec 08 | vs |  Bucknell #313 | +9.0 | 77% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | at |  Wagner #291 | -1.1 | 46% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | at |  Grand Canyon #59 | -13.4 | 14% | |
| Tue Dec 29 | vs |  Coppin State #364 | +15.6 | 90% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  NJIT #347 | conf | +8.4 | 75% |
| Thu Jan 07 | at |  New Hampshire #335 | conf | +3.6 | 61% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  Maine #318 | conf | +3.0 | 60% |
| Thu Jan 14 | at |  Bryant #327 | conf | +2.2 | 57% |
| Mon Jan 18 | vs |  UAlbany #293 | conf | +4.9 | 66% |
| Thu Jan 21 | vs |  Vermont #202 | conf | +1.8 | 56% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs |  UMass Lowell #287 | conf | +4.7 | 65% |
| Thu Jan 28 | at |  Binghamton #330 | conf | +3.2 | 60% |
| Thu Feb 04 | vs | Bryant #327 | conf | +6.3 | 70% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at | UAlbany #293 | conf | +1.6 | 55% |
| Thu Feb 11 | vs | Maine #318 | conf | +6.0 | 69% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | New Hampshire #335 | conf | +7.1 | 72% |
| Thu Feb 18 | at | Vermont #202 | conf | -1.7 | 44% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at | UMass Lowell #287 | conf | +0.6 | 52% |
| Thu Feb 25 | at | NJIT #347 | conf | +5.3 | 67% |
| Tue Mar 02 | vs | Binghamton #330 | conf | +6.5 | 70% |
Projected margin is from UMBC's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.