Teams › Big Ten · Compare Minnesota with another team
Minnesota
Minnesota returns 61% of last season's minutes and rates #81 on offense and #49 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +2.4 to +17.0.
Why we have them here
Minnesota's preseason projection of +9.7 (No. 65 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +6.2, about the +5.7 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 89 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.9, about its neighbours' +1.3; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +2.0. It returns 61% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (32%). The projection leans most on Isaac Asuma (+3.4), Jaylen Crocker-Johnson (+2.9) and Bobby Durkin (+2.7); the newcomer who matters most is Kyan Evans, a transfer from North Carolina, at +1.0. Its 80% range, +2.4 to +17.0, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 59% · Transfer 27% · Freshman 10% · Other newcomer 4%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 199 | Isaac Asuma | G | 6-3 | 2 | Returning | Minnesota | 28 | +4.9 | +3.4 |
| 261 | Jaylen Crocker-Johnson | F | 6-8 | 3 | Returning | Minnesota | 25 | +4.6 | +2.9 |
| 347 | Bobby Durkin | F | 6-7 | 3 | Returning | Minnesota | 28 | +3.8 | +2.7 |
| 557 | Grayson Grove | F | 6-9 | 1 | Returning | Minnesota | 19 | +3.2 | +1.5 |
| 776 | Kyan Evans | G | 6-2 | 3 | Transfer | North Carolina | 16 | +2.5 | +1.0 |
| 837 | Winters Grady | G | 6-6 | 1 | Transfer | Michigan | 9 | +3.0 | +0.7 |
| 1017 | Malick Kordel | C | 7-2 | 1 | Transfer | Michigan | 6 | +2.4 | +0.4 |
| 1059 | Malachi Palmer | G | 6-6 | 2 | Transfer | Villanova | 16 | +1.4 | +0.6 |
| 1597 | Nolen Anderson | F | 6-6 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 9 | +0.1 | +0.0 |
| 1669 | Nolan Groves | G | 6-5 | 1 | Transfer | Texas Tech | 7 | +0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1707 | Chadrack Mpoyi | C | 6-10 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 3 | -0.2 | +0.0 |
| 2131 | Cedric Tomes | G | 6-0 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 8 | -0.7 | -0.1 |
| 2145 | Max Lorenson | F | 6-2 | 0 | Other newcomer | 4 | -1.1 | -0.1 | |
| 2187 | Blake Nixon Jr. | F | 6-3 | 0 | Other newcomer | 4 | -1.1 | -0.1 | |
| 2569 | RJ Spencer | G | 6-3 | 1 | Returning | Minnesota | 3 | -1.8 | -0.2 |
| 3010 | Maximus Gizzi | G | 6-1 | 1 | Returning | Minnesota | 4 | -2.2 | -0.2 |
| 3904 | Kai Shinholster | G | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | Minnesota | 10 | -2.1 | -0.5 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  North Dakota #310 | +17.5 | 93% | |
| Fri Nov 06 | vs |  St. Thomas-Minnesota #130 | +11.0 | 82% | |
| Mon Nov 09 | at |  Cincinnati #42 | -8.8 | 24% | |
| Thu Nov 12 | vs |  Southern #235 | +15.5 | 90% | |
| Mon Nov 16 | vs |  Western Illinois #362 | +22.7 | 97% | |
| Fri Nov 20 | N |  Oklahoma State #91 | +2.1 | 57% | |
| Sun Nov 22 | N |  Utah #72 | +0.5 | 52% | |
| Sat Nov 28 | N |  California #115 | +4.2 | 63% | |
| Wed Dec 02 | at |  Michigan State #6 | conf | -11.6 | 17% |
| Tue Dec 08 | vs |  Illinois #5 | conf | -5.4 | 33% |
| Sat Dec 12 | N |  SMU #53 | -1.4 | 45% | |
| Wed Dec 16 | vs |  Texas Southern #331 | +18.8 | 94% | |
| Sun Dec 20 | vs |  Alcorn State #358 | +21.5 | 96% | |
| Tue Dec 29 | vs |  UTSA #284 | +16.5 | 91% | |
| Sun Jan 03 | at |  Northwestern #79 | conf | -2.0 | 43% |
| Wed Jan 06 | vs |  Penn State #89 | conf | +5.2 | 66% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  Wisconsin #34 | conf | -6.6 | 30% |
| Tue Jan 12 | at |  Michigan #11 | conf | -10.4 | 20% |
| Sun Jan 17 | vs |  Purdue #38 | conf | +0.7 | 52% |
| Wed Jan 20 | vs |  Indiana #55 | conf | +2.1 | 57% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  Rutgers #102 | conf | +0.4 | 51% |
| Tue Jan 26 | vs |  Washington #92 | conf | +5.3 | 67% |
| Sun Jan 31 | vs | Wisconsin #34 | conf | +0.2 | 51% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at |  USC #35 | conf | -6.0 | 31% |
| Tue Feb 09 | at |  UCLA #28 | conf | -7.2 | 28% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs |  Oregon #58 | conf | +2.6 | 59% |
| Tue Feb 16 | vs | Michigan #11 | conf | -4.1 | 37% |
| Sun Feb 21 | vs | Northwestern #79 | conf | +4.3 | 64% |
| Wed Feb 24 | at |  Maryland #64 | conf | -3.2 | 39% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at |  Iowa #33 | conf | -6.4 | 30% |
| Thu Mar 04 | vs |  Ohio State #27 | conf | -0.8 | 47% |
| Sun Mar 07 | at |  Nebraska #12 | conf | -10.1 | 20% |
Projected margin is from Minnesota's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.