Roster Math

Teams › Big Ten · Compare Iowa with another team

Iowa

Iowa returns 68% of last season's minutes and rates #42 on offense and #19 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +7.3 to +21.8.

+14.6
Rating · #33 of 365
+7.5
Offense · #42
+7.2
Defense · #19
+7.3 to +21.8
80% range
26%
Chance of top 25
<1%
Chance of No. 1
19-13
Projected record · 14 to 24 wins
10-10
Projected in Big Ten · 7 to 14 wins

Why we have them here

Iowa's preseason projection of +14.6 (No. 33 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +8.8, about the +8.9 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 23 at the end of 2025-26) adds +3.3, about its neighbours' +2.6; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +1.7. A stretch at the top of the scale adds +0.6, because a straight-line calibration shrinks elite teams. It returns 68% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (32%). The projection leans most on Cam Manyawu (+4.0), Andrew McKeever (+3.3) and Cooper Koch (+3.3); the newcomer who matters most is Andrew McKeever, a transfer from Saint Mary's, at +3.3. Its 80% range, +7.3 to +21.8, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 66% · Transfer 23% · Freshman 9% · Other newcomer 2%

Cam Manyawu+4.0
Andrew McKeever+3.3
Cooper Koch+3.3
Ty'Reek Coleman+2.9
Isaia Howard+1.7
Tate Sage+1.3
Trevin Jirak+0.3
Kael Combs+0.1
Jacob Koch+0.0
Joey Matteoni+0.0
Peyton McCollum+0.0
Trey Thompson+0.0
Jaidyn Coon-0.1
Ethan Harris-0.1
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
100Cam ManyawuF6-93ReturningIowa22+7.2+4.0
169Andrew McKeeverC7-22TransferSaint Mary's23+5.7+3.3
224Cooper KochF6-82ReturningIowa28+4.7+3.3
236Ty'Reek ColemanG6-21TransferIllinois State22+5.1+2.9
538Isaia HowardG6-52ReturningIowa21+3.2+1.7
640Tate SageG6-71ReturningIowa17+3.0+1.3
1130Trevin JirakC6-111ReturningIowa9+1.5+0.3
1532Kael CombsG6-43ReturningIowa22+0.2+0.1
1547Jacob KochG6-22ReturningIowa5+0.3+0.0
1643Joey MatteoniF6-91ReturningIowa6+0.0+0.0
1687Peyton McCollumF6-20Other newcomer2-0.1+0.0
1822Trey ThompsonF6-80Other newcomer3-0.5+0.0
1830Jaidyn CoonF6-60FreshmanHigh school9-0.3-0.1
1943Ethan HarrisF6-90FreshmanHigh school9-0.4-0.1

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Tue Nov 03vsLipscomb #118+14.388%
Fri Nov 06vsEastern Illinois #324+21.096%
Tue Nov 10NVirginia Tech #45+1.254%
Sun Nov 15NCreighton #41+0.953%
Fri Nov 20atXavier #57-3.738%
Tue Nov 24vsUMBC #180+16.191%
Sat Nov 28vsPrairie View A&M #341+23.297%
Tue Dec 01atPurdue #38conf-2.342%
Mon Dec 07vsIndiana #55conf+5.668%
Thu Dec 10vsIowa State #9+1.856%
Sun Dec 13vsWestern Illinois #362+26.098%
Thu Dec 17vsBethune-Cookman #220+18.093%
Mon Dec 21NAlabama #17-3.240%
Tue Dec 29vsSouth Dakota #322+22.397%
Sat Jan 02vsOhio State #27conf+2.759%
Wed Jan 06vsWisconsin #34conf+3.862%
Sat Jan 09vsMaryland #64conf+6.771%
Tue Jan 12atRutgers #102conf+3.662%
Sat Jan 16atNebraska #12conf-6.928%
Sat Jan 23vsPenn State #89conf+8.676%
Tue Jan 26atOhio State #27conf-4.037%
Sat Jan 30vsNebraska #12conf-0.349%
Wed Feb 03atUSC #35conf-2.642%
Sat Feb 06atUCLA #28conf-4.137%
Wed Feb 10vsOregon #58conf+6.069%
Sat Feb 13atNorthwestern #79conf+1.154%
Tue Feb 16vsMichigan State #6conf-1.545%
Sat Feb 20atMichigan #11conf-7.028%
Wed Feb 24atWisconsin #34conf-3.339%
Sat Feb 27vsMinnesota #65conf+6.470%
Tue Mar 02vsWashington #92conf+8.877%
Sat Mar 06atIllinois #5conf-8.624%

Projected margin is from Iowa's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.