Teams › MAC · Compare Buffalo with another team
Buffalo
Buffalo returns 26% of last season's minutes and rates #177 on offense and #248 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -9.2 to +5.3.
Why we have them here
Buffalo's preseason projection of -2.0 (No. 209 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +0.2, more than the -1.2 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 200 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.0, about its neighbours' -0.3; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -2.5. It returns 26% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (65%). The projection leans most on Drew Steffe (+2.2), J.J. Starling (+1.3) and Antoine Lorick III (+0.8); the newcomer who matters most is Drew Steffe, a transfer from Southern Illinois, at +2.2. Its 80% range, -9.2 to +5.3, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 24% · Transfer 64% · Other newcomer 12%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 426 | Drew Steffe | G | 6-5 | 2 | Transfer | Southern Illinois | 24 | +3.6 | +2.2 |
| 745 | J.J. Starling | G | 6-4 | 4 | Transfer | Syracuse | 24 | +2.2 | +1.3 |
| 947 | Antoine Lorick III | F | 6-8 | 2 | Transfer | Tennessee State | 17 | +1.8 | +0.8 |
| 1360 | Jalen Pitre | F | 6-8 | 4 | Transfer | Tennessee State | 20 | +0.5 | +0.2 |
| 1367 | Harrison Reede | G | 6-1 | 2 | Transfer | Incarnate Word | 9 | +0.6 | +0.1 |
| 1816 | Derrick Talton Jr. | G | 5-10 | 1 | Returning | Buffalo | 20 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| 2599 | Evan Romano | F | 6-3 | 0 | Other newcomer | 4 | -1.6 | -0.2 | |
| 2670 | Jahrel Vigo | F | 6-3 | 0 | Other newcomer | 5 | -1.6 | -0.2 | |
| 2742 | JJ Frakes | F | 6-5 | 0 | Other newcomer | 5 | -1.8 | -0.2 | |
| 2886 | Omar Migues-Hibeljic | G | 6-5 | 2 | Returning | Buffalo | 4 | -2.1 | -0.2 |
| 2900 | Daniel Shao | G | 5-10 | 1 | Returning | Buffalo | 3 | -2.4 | -0.2 |
| 2973 | Boluwasefe John | F | 6-8 | 0 | Other newcomer | 5 | -1.9 | -0.2 | |
| 3277 | Dylan Ducommun | G | 6-4 | 1 | Transfer | Northern Illinois | 21 | -1.1 | -0.6 |
| 3316 | Kyle Jones | G | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | Buffalo | 8 | -1.9 | -0.4 |
| 3471 | Matas Buteliauskas | F | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | Buffalo | 4 | -2.7 | -0.3 |
| 3990 | Mikhail Pocknett | F | 6-6 | 3 | Returning | Buffalo | 10 | -2.3 | -0.5 |
| 3995 | Tristan Kuska | C | 6-9 | 1 | Other newcomer | 5 | -3.0 | -0.4 | |
| 4398 | Mikkel Tyne | G | 5-10 | 3 | Transfer | Richmond | 13 | -2.5 | -0.8 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | at |  Marshall #247 | -4.6 | 35% | |
| Thu Nov 05 | at |  Pittsburgh #68 | -13.0 | 14% | |
| Sun Nov 15 | vs |  Canisius #346 | +9.4 | 78% | |
| Thu Nov 19 | at |  St. Bonaventure #126 | -8.3 | 25% | |
| Sat Nov 28 | at |  Towson #193 | -6.2 | 30% | |
| Wed Dec 02 | at |  Western Michigan #151 | conf | -4.0 | 37% |
| Sat Dec 05 | vs |  Miami (OH) #96 | conf | -5.1 | 34% |
| Sat Dec 12 | vs |  Purdue Fort Wayne #212 | +3.7 | 62% | |
| Wed Dec 16 | vs |  Akron #73 | conf | -7.0 | 29% |
| Sat Dec 19 | at |  Ohio #232 | conf | -2.4 | 42% |
| Tue Dec 22 | at |  Rhode Island #148 | -8.3 | 25% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  Kent State #133 | conf | -4.7 | 35% |
| Tue Jan 05 | vs |  Massachusetts #178 | conf | -0.4 | 49% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  Toledo #173 | conf | -3.0 | 40% |
| Tue Jan 12 | at |  Central Michigan #259 | conf | -1.3 | 46% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  Bowling Green #266 | conf | +2.6 | 58% |
| Tue Jan 19 | at | Miami (OH) #96 | conf | -8.7 | 24% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs | Toledo #173 | conf | -0.6 | 48% |
| Tue Jan 26 | vs |  Eastern Michigan #244 | conf | +1.6 | 55% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at |  Ball State #153 | conf | -3.7 | 38% |
| Tue Feb 02 | vs | Ohio #232 | conf | +1.4 | 55% |
| Tue Feb 09 | at | Akron #73 | conf | -10.5 | 20% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at | Bowling Green #266 | conf | -0.7 | 48% |
| Tue Feb 16 | vs | Central Michigan #259 | conf | +2.3 | 57% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs | Kent State #133 | conf | -2.4 | 42% |
| Tue Feb 23 | at | Massachusetts #178 | conf | -3.6 | 39% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | Eastern Michigan #244 | conf | -0.8 | 47% |
| Tue Mar 02 | vs | Ball State #153 | conf | -1.2 | 46% |
| Fri Mar 05 | vs | Western Michigan #151 | conf | -1.4 | 46% |
Projected margin is from Buffalo's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.