Roster Math

Teams › MAC · Compare Eastern Michigan with another team

Eastern Michigan

Eastern Michigan returns 53% of last season's minutes and rates #301 on offense and #163 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -10.8 to +3.7.

-3.6
Rating · #244 of 365
-4.0
Offense · #301
+0.4
Defense · #163
-10.8 to +3.7
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
11-17
Projected record · 6 to 17 wins
9-13
Projected in MAC · 5 to 13 wins

Why we have them here

Eastern Michigan's preseason projection of -3.6 (No. 244 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -2.0, about the -2.4 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 249 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.9, about its neighbours' -0.7; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -1.0. It returns 53% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (69%). The projection leans most on Carlos Hart (+0.9), Jabri Fitzpatrick (+0.7) and Sencire Harris (+0.5); the newcomer who matters most is Jabri Fitzpatrick, a transfer from New Haven, at +0.7. Its 80% range, -10.8 to +3.7, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 53% · Transfer 32% · Other newcomer 15%

Carlos Hart+0.9
Jabri Fitzpatrick+0.7
Sencire Harris+0.5
Mohammad Habhab+0.3
Kilian Brockhoff+0.2
Mak Manciel+0.1
Max Booher-0.2
Jaiden Martin-0.2
Mbaye N'Diaye-0.2
Aviv Aronov-0.2
DaCory Porter-0.2
Jordan Wright-0.2
Omar Suleiman-0.2
Kaden Johnson-0.3
Gregory Lawson II-0.3
Aidan Rubio-0.5
Mehki Ellison-0.6
Jon Sanders II-0.7
Braelon Green-0.9
Emanuel Richards-1.8
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
922Carlos HartG6-53ReturningEastern Michigan21+1.7+0.9
1018Jabri FitzpatrickG6-23TransferNew Haven24+1.2+0.7
1030Sencire HarrisG6-44TransferCincinnati12+1.7+0.5
1341Mohammad HabhabF6-92ReturningEastern Michigan26+0.4+0.3
1346Kilian BrockhoffF6-83TransferWilliam & Mary14+0.6+0.2
1460Mak MancielG6-43ReturningEastern Michigan10+0.4+0.1
2615Gregory Lawson IIG6-31ReturningEastern Michigan11-1.0-0.3
2764Max BooherF6-40Other newcomer4-1.9-0.2
2764Jaiden MartinF6-40Other newcomer4-1.9-0.2
2833DaCory PorterF6-40Other newcomer4-1.9-0.2
2835Aviv AronovF6-50Other newcomer4-2.0-0.2
2900Jordan WrightF6-60Other newcomer4-2.0-0.2
2900Omar SuleimanF6-63Other newcomer4-2.0-0.2
2978Mbaye N'DiayeG6-52ReturningEastern Michigan3-2.4-0.2
3301Kaden JohnsonF6-110Other newcomer5-2.3-0.3
4334Mehki EllisonG6-02ReturningEastern Michigan8-3.0-0.6
4429Aidan RubioG6-73ReturningEastern Michigan6-3.8-0.5
4462Jon Sanders IIG6-23ReturningEastern Michigan10-3.0-0.7
4740Braelon GreenG6-33ReturningEastern Michigan12-3.3-0.9
5194Emanuel RichardsG6-43TransferLongwood14-5.4-1.8

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02atCoastal Carolina #301-2.841%
Fri Nov 06atXavier #57-16.79%
Wed Nov 18vsDetroit Mercy #312+7.974%
Sat Nov 21vsDenver #240+4.966%
Tue Nov 24NKennesaw State #167-2.642%
Wed Dec 02vsMassachusetts #178conf-0.150%
Sat Dec 05atBall State #153conf-4.835%
Wed Dec 09atToledo #173conf-4.137%
Sat Dec 12vsCentral Michigan #259conf+2.558%
Sat Dec 19atLouisville #7-23.93%
Sat Jan 02atMiami (OH) #96conf-9.921%
Tue Jan 05atWestern Michigan #151conf-5.134%
Sat Jan 09vsBowling Green #266conf+2.859%
Tue Jan 12vsAkron #73conf-6.829%
Sat Jan 16atOhio #232conf-3.539%
Tue Jan 19vsKent State #133conf-2.143%
Sat Jan 23vsBall State #153conf-1.047%
Tue Jan 26atBuffalo #209conf-1.645%
Sat Jan 30vsWestern Michigan #151conf-1.246%
Tue Feb 02vsToledo #173conf-0.449%
Tue Feb 09atCentral Michigan #259conf-2.442%
Sat Feb 13atMassachusetts #178conf-4.835%
Tue Feb 16vsOhio #232conf+1.755%
Sat Feb 20atAkron #73conf-11.717%
Tue Feb 23vsMiami (OH) #96conf-4.935%
Sat Feb 27vsBuffalo #209conf+0.853%
Tue Mar 02atKent State #133conf-5.832%
Fri Mar 05atBowling Green #266conf-1.844%

Projected margin is from Eastern Michigan's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.