Teams › MAC · Compare Ball State with another team
Ball State
Ball State returns 36% of last season's minutes and rates #151 on offense and #187 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -6.5 to +7.8.
Why we have them here
Ball State's preseason projection of +0.7 (No. 153 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +1.2, about the +0.6 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 280 at the end of 2025-26) adds -1.6, less than its neighbours' +0.2; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +0.8. It returns 36% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (55%). The projection leans most on Zaon Collins (+1.6), K'Jei Parker (+1.2) and Javion Guy-King (+1.0); the newcomer who matters most is Zaon Collins, a transfer from Fresno State, at +1.6. Its 80% range, -6.5 to +7.8, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 36% · Transfer 58% · Freshman 6%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 588 | Zaon Collins | G | 6-1 | 2 | Transfer | Fresno State | 21 | +3.0 | +1.6 |
| 687 | K'Jei Parker | G | 6-2 | 3 | Transfer | Massachusetts | 17 | +2.8 | +1.2 |
| 804 | Javion Guy-King | G | 6-6 | 3 | Transfer | Central Arkansas | 17 | +2.4 | +1.0 |
| 947 | Devon Barnes | G | 6-1 | 3 | Returning | Ball State | 16 | +1.8 | +0.7 |
| 1163 | Sean Blake | G | 6-2 | 2 | Transfer | Vermont | 20 | +0.9 | +0.5 |
| 1384 | Babatunde Durodola | F | 6-8 | 2 | Transfer | Temple | 13 | +0.5 | +0.2 |
| 1387 | Juwan Maxey | G | 6-0 | 2 | Returning | Ball State | 12 | +0.5 | +0.1 |
| 1505 | Aaron Fine | G | 6-2 | 1 | Transfer | Purdue | 4 | +0.5 | +0.0 |
| 1641 | Trey Lewis | G | 6-6 | 3 | Transfer | Western Michigan | 12 | +0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1784 | Jazz Henderson | G | 5-11 | 1 | Transfer | Texas Tech | 4 | -0.3 | +0.0 |
| 2461 | Kamden McGilveary | G | 6-0 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 6 | -1.3 | -0.2 |
| 2725 | Jaden Smith | C | 6-11 | 2 | Transfer | Saint Joseph's | 6 | -1.5 | -0.2 |
| 2865 | Jai Anthoni Bearden | F | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | Ball State | 5 | -1.9 | -0.2 |
| 3009 | Easton Foster | F | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | Ball State | 3 | -2.4 | -0.2 |
| 3043 | Kai McGrew | F | 6-8 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 6 | -1.8 | -0.3 |
| 3474 | Kody Clancy | G | 6-3 | 2 | Returning | Ball State | 4 | -2.6 | -0.3 |
| 4021 | Mason Jones | F | 6-7 | 3 | Returning | Ball State | 22 | -1.5 | -0.8 |
| 4224 | Joey Hart | G | 6-5 | 3 | Returning | Ball State | 9 | -2.6 | -0.6 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | at |  Georgia Southern #298 | -0.2 | 49% | |
| Fri Nov 06 | vs |  Indiana State #116 | +3.3 | 61% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | at |  SMU #53 | -13.4 | 14% | |
| Tue Nov 17 | at |  Florida State #90 | -10.1 | 21% | |
| Sat Nov 28 | at |  Southern Indiana #315 | +1.3 | 54% | |
| Wed Dec 02 | at |  Akron #73 | conf | -8.4 | 25% |
| Sat Dec 05 | vs |  Eastern Michigan #244 | conf | +4.8 | 65% |
| Tue Dec 08 | vs |  Evansville #317 | +10.6 | 81% | |
| Wed Dec 09 | vs | Evansville #317 | +10.6 | 81% | |
| Wed Dec 16 | vs |  Ohio #232 | conf | +4.7 | 65% |
| Sat Dec 19 | at |  Miami (OH) #96 | conf | -6.6 | 30% |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  Massachusetts #178 | conf | -1.6 | 45% |
| Tue Jan 05 | vs |  Kent State #133 | conf | +1.1 | 54% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  Central Michigan #259 | conf | +5.4 | 67% |
| Tue Jan 12 | at |  Bowling Green #266 | conf | +1.2 | 54% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Western Michigan #151 | conf | -2.1 | 43% |
| Tue Jan 19 | vs |  Toledo #173 | conf | +2.7 | 59% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at | Eastern Michigan #244 | conf | +1.0 | 53% |
| Tue Jan 26 | at | Kent State #133 | conf | -2.7 | 41% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs |  Buffalo #209 | conf | +3.7 | 62% |
| Tue Feb 02 | vs | Bowling Green #266 | conf | +5.8 | 68% |
| Tue Feb 09 | at | Toledo #173 | conf | -1.1 | 46% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | Miami (OH) #96 | conf | -1.6 | 45% |
| Tue Feb 16 | vs | Massachusetts #178 | conf | +3.0 | 60% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at | Ohio #232 | conf | -0.5 | 48% |
| Tue Feb 23 | vs | Western Michigan #151 | conf | +1.9 | 56% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs | Akron #73 | conf | -3.5 | 39% |
| Tue Mar 02 | at | Buffalo #209 | conf | +1.2 | 54% |
| Fri Mar 05 | at | Central Michigan #259 | conf | +0.5 | 52% |
Projected margin is from Ball State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.