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Saint Louis
Saint Louis returns 71% of last season's minutes and rates #54 on offense and #53 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +3.7 to +18.4.
Why we have them here
Saint Louis's preseason projection of +11.1 (No. 56 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +5.9, less than the +6.8 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 20 at the end of 2025-26) adds +3.5, more than its neighbours' +1.5; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +1.0. A stretch at the top of the scale adds +0.3, because a straight-line calibration shrinks elite teams. It returns 71% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (33%). The projection leans most on Ishan Sharma (+3.4), Trey Green (+3.3) and Kellen Thames (+2.4); the newcomer who matters most is Elijah Strong, a transfer from South Carolina, at +0.4. Its 80% range, +3.7 to +18.4, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 69% · Transfer 17% · Freshman 9% · Other newcomer 6%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 167 | Ishan Sharma | F | 6-5 | 2 | Returning | Saint Louis | 24 | +5.7 | +3.4 |
| 184 | Trey Green | G | 6-0 | 3 | Returning | Saint Louis | 24 | +5.4 | +3.3 |
| 322 | Kellen Thames | G | 6-6 | 4 | Returning | Saint Louis | 21 | +4.6 | +2.4 |
| 699 | Amari McCottry | G | 6-6 | 2 | Returning | Saint Louis | 22 | +2.4 | +1.4 |
| 761 | Quentin Jones | G | 6-5 | 3 | Returning | Saint Louis | 24 | +2.1 | +1.3 |
| 1190 | Elijah Strong | F | 6-8 | 3 | Transfer | South Carolina | 18 | +0.9 | +0.4 |
| 1308 | Jax Kerr | F | 6-11 | 1 | Returning | Saint Louis | 9 | +0.8 | +0.2 |
| 1365 | Isaac Holmes | G | 6-4 | 2 | Returning | Saint Louis | 6 | +0.8 | +0.1 |
| 1777 | Luke Laczkowski | F | 6-8 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -0.4 | +0.0 | |
| 1794 | Badara Diakite | F | 6-9 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -0.4 | +0.0 | |
| 1798 | Yousaf Ahmad | G | 6-5 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -0.5 | +0.0 | |
| 1863 | Sheek Pearson | F | 6-11 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -0.6 | +0.0 | |
| 2168 | Jermel Thomas | G | 6-2 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 9 | -0.7 | -0.2 |
| 2344 | Jamison White | F | 6-7 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 9 | -0.9 | -0.2 |
| 2531 | Alon Michaeli | F | 6-9 | 1 | Transfer | Colorado | 15 | -0.8 | -0.3 |
| 3047 | Cam Hutson | G | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | Saint Louis | 6 | -1.8 | -0.3 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  Lehigh #256 | +17.5 | 92% | |
| Fri Nov 06 | N |  Missouri #43 | -1.4 | 45% | |
| Tue Nov 10 | vs |  Northern Kentucky #270 | +18.6 | 93% | |
| Sun Nov 15 | vs |  High Point #40 | +4.8 | 65% | |
| Fri Nov 20 | at |  Saint Mary's #60 | -5.9 | 32% | |
| Tue Nov 24 | N |  Grand Canyon #59 | +0.6 | 52% | |
| Wed Nov 25 | N |  Colorado #85 | +2.5 | 58% | |
| Sun Nov 29 | N |  South Florida #83 | +2.5 | 58% | |
| Wed Dec 02 | vs |  Arkansas-Pine Bluff #349 | +23.5 | 97% | |
| Sun Dec 06 | vs |  SE Louisiana #286 | +18.1 | 93% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | vs |  DePaul #97 | +9.8 | 79% | |
| Tue Dec 15 | vs |  Florida A&M #336 | +21.2 | 96% | |
| Sun Dec 20 | vs |  Jackson State #355 | +24.3 | 97% | |
| Wed Dec 30 | at |  Fordham #125 | conf | +4.0 | 63% |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  St. Bonaventure #126 | conf | +9.1 | 77% |
| Wed Jan 06 | at |  Richmond #136 | conf | +3.9 | 62% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  Dayton #74 | conf | +4.8 | 65% |
| Wed Jan 13 | vs |  Loyola Chicago #166 | conf | +10.8 | 81% |
| Wed Jan 20 | at |  La Salle #218 | conf | +6.3 | 69% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  Saint Joseph's #129 | conf | +3.7 | 62% |
| Tue Jan 26 | vs |  Rhode Island #148 | conf | +10.2 | 79% |
| Fri Jan 29 | at | Dayton #74 | conf | -1.5 | 45% |
| Fri Feb 05 | vs |  VCU #44 | conf | +1.8 | 56% |
| Tue Feb 09 | at | Loyola Chicago #166 | conf | +4.9 | 66% |
| Fri Feb 12 | vs | Saint Joseph's #129 | conf | +9.4 | 77% |
| Tue Feb 16 | vs |  Davidson #132 | conf | +9.2 | 77% |
| Fri Feb 19 | at | VCU #44 | conf | -4.6 | 36% |
| Wed Feb 24 | vs | La Salle #218 | conf | +12.4 | 84% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at |  George Washington #119 | conf | +2.6 | 58% |
| Wed Mar 03 | at |  Duquesne #156 | conf | +5.0 | 65% |
| Sat Mar 06 | vs |  George Mason #107 | conf | +7.8 | 74% |
Projected margin is from Saint Louis's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.