Teams › UAC · Compare Tarleton State with another team
Tarleton State
Tarleton State returns 68% of last season's minutes and rates #282 on offense and #218 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -11.4 to +2.8.
Why we have them here
Tarleton State's preseason projection of -4.3 (No. 257 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -2.0, about the -2.7 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 256 at the end of 2025-26) adds -1.0, about its neighbours' -0.8; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -1.6. It returns 68% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (68%). The projection leans most on Andy Sigiscar (+0.4), Jac Mani (+0.3) and Leroy Kelly IV (+0.3); the newcomer who matters most is Jac Mani, a transfer from Fresno State, at +0.3. Its 80% range, -11.4 to +2.8, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 65% · Transfer 30% · Freshman 2% · Other newcomer 2%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1138 | Andy Sigiscar | F | 6-9 | 1 | Returning | Tarleton State | 11 | +1.4 | +0.4 |
| 1159 | Jac Mani | F | 6-9 | 4 | Transfer | Fresno State | 10 | +1.3 | +0.3 |
| 1215 | Leroy Kelly IV | G | 6-2 | 1 | Returning | Tarleton State | 14 | +0.9 | +0.3 |
| 1253 | Franck Emmou | G | 6-5 | 3 | Transfer | Texas State | 16 | +0.8 | +0.3 |
| 1323 | Caleb Blackwell | G | 6-1 | 3 | Transfer | UTEP | 20 | +0.5 | +0.3 |
| 1398 | Jordan Mizell | G | 6-1 | 2 | Returning | Tarleton State | 19 | +0.4 | +0.2 |
| 1620 | Chris Mpaka | F | 6-6 | 2 | Returning | Tarleton State | 12 | +0.1 | +0.0 |
| 2684 | Joseph Martinez | G | 6-3 | 2 | Returning | Tarleton State | 3 | -2.2 | -0.1 |
| 2706 | Malek Archie | G | 6-2 | 1 | Returning | Tarleton State | 6 | -1.5 | -0.2 |
| 2780 | Roy Marom | G | 5-8 | 2 | Returning | Tarleton State | 3 | -2.4 | -0.2 |
| 3000 | Matyas Vrabel | F | 6-10 | 2 | Returning | Tarleton State | 4 | -2.2 | -0.2 |
| 3088 | Jaden Jinks | F | 6-8 | 0 | Other newcomer | 4 | -2.2 | -0.2 | |
| 3127 | Caeden Hutcherson | G | 6-5 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 4 | -2.3 | -0.2 |
| 3173 | Kaia Isaac | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | Tarleton State | 16 | -1.2 | -0.5 |
| 3641 | AJ Dent Jr. | F | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | Tarleton State | 6 | -2.5 | -0.4 |
| 3653 | Kade Douglas | G | 6-0 | 3 | Returning | Tarleton State | 10 | -1.9 | -0.5 |
| 3726 | Cameron Thomas | G | 6-3 | 1 | Returning | Tarleton State | 4 | -3.0 | -0.3 |
| 3793 | Damion Porter Jr. | G | 6-2 | 1 | Returning | Tarleton State | 4 | -3.1 | -0.3 |
| 4141 | Ocypher Owens | F | 6-7 | 3 | Returning | Tarleton State | 10 | -2.4 | -0.6 |
| 4454 | DJ Dormu | G | 5-9 | 1 | Returning | Tarleton State | 10 | -2.9 | -0.7 |
| 4805 | Isaac Harrell | F | 6-8 | 3 | Transfer | Elon | 15 | -3.0 | -1.1 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri Nov 06 | at |  San Diego #263 | -5.0 | 34% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | vs |  Alcorn State #358 | +12.9 | 85% | |
| Mon Nov 16 | at |  Drake #104 | -11.5 | 18% | |
| Thu Nov 19 | at |  USC #35 | -20.3 | 5% | |
| Tue Nov 24 | at |  Weber State #233 | -7.4 | 28% | |
| Sun Nov 29 | at |  Texas Southern #331 | -2.9 | 41% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | at |  Pittsburgh #68 | -15.3 | 11% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | vs |  Missouri State #201 | +4.2 | 63% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | at |  Florida Gulf Coast #299 | -3.4 | 39% | |
| Mon Dec 21 | at |  Stetson #311 | -3.3 | 40% | |
| Mon Dec 28 | vs |  West Florida #304 | +8.0 | 74% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  North Florida #321 | +9.5 | 78% | |
| Wed Jan 06 | vs |  Central Arkansas #181 | conf | +0.4 | 51% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  Little Rock #320 | conf | +5.8 | 68% |
| Wed Jan 13 | at |  Eastern Kentucky #264 | conf | -2.2 | 43% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Austin Peay #163 | conf | -6.3 | 31% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at | Little Rock #320 | conf | +0.9 | 53% |
| Wed Jan 27 | vs |  West Georgia #295 | conf | +4.7 | 65% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs | Austin Peay #163 | conf | -0.3 | 49% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at |  Abilene Christian #192 | conf | -4.5 | 36% |
| Wed Feb 10 | vs |  North Alabama #332 | conf | +6.3 | 69% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at |  UT Arlington #211 | conf | -4.0 | 37% |
| Wed Feb 17 | at | Central Arkansas #181 | conf | -5.6 | 33% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs | Eastern Kentucky #264 | conf | +3.3 | 60% |
| Wed Feb 24 | vs | Abilene Christian #192 | conf | +0.9 | 53% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs | UT Arlington #211 | conf | +1.3 | 54% |
| Wed Mar 03 | at | West Georgia #295 | conf | -0.3 | 49% |
| Sat Mar 06 | at | North Alabama #332 | conf | +0.8 | 53% |
Projected margin is from Tarleton State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.