Roster Math

Teams › WCC · Compare Pepperdine with another team

Pepperdine

Pepperdine returns 41% of last season's minutes and rates #178 on offense and #302 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -11.1 to +3.5.

-3.8
Rating · #249 of 365
-0.4
Offense · #178
-3.4
Defense · #302
-11.1 to +3.5
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
13-17
Projected record · 7 to 18 wins
7-10
Projected in WCC · 3 to 10 wins

Why we have them here

Pepperdine's preseason projection of -3.8 (No. 249 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -0.5, more than the -2.3 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 327 at the end of 2025-26) adds -2.0, less than its neighbours' -0.8; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -1.6. It returns 41% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (68%). The projection leans most on Petar Majstorovic (+3.5), Jahari Williamson (+1.1) and Evan Haywood (+0.9); the newcomer who matters most is Petar Majstorovic, a transfer from Long Beach State, at +3.5. Its 80% range, -11.1 to +3.5, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 38% · Transfer 50% · Freshman 9% · Other newcomer 4%

Petar Majstorovic+3.5
Jahari Williamson+1.1
Evan Haywood+0.9
Alex Constanza+0.1
Anthony Robinson-0.1
Pavle Stošic-0.3
Chace Holley-0.3
Will McClendon-0.3
Nikola Radovanovic-0.4
Anto Balian-0.4
Pasha Shemirani-0.4
Vladimir Sudar-0.5
David Mager-0.9
Luka Vudragovic-1.0
Danilo Dozic-1.8
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
203Petar MajstorovicF6-82TransferLong Beach State29+4.8+3.5
846Jahari WilliamsonG6-13TransferKent State23+1.8+1.1
919Evan HaywoodG6-42TransferButler21+1.7+0.9
1503Alex ConstanzaF6-80FreshmanHigh school9+0.3+0.1
1891Anthony RobinsonF6-102TransferXavier11-0.3-0.1
2322Pavle StošicF6-93ReturningPepperdine16-0.6-0.3
2486Will McClendonG6-34TransferNorth Texas17-0.8-0.3
2852Chace HolleyG6-00FreshmanHigh school9-1.4-0.3
3717Anto BalianF6-10Other newcomer7-2.3-0.4
3981Nikola RadovanovicF6-91ReturningPepperdine6-2.9-0.4
4295Pasha ShemiraniF6-51ReturningPepperdine5-3.9-0.4
4478Vladimir SudarF6-51ReturningPepperdine4-4.5-0.5
4737David MagerG6-43ReturningPepperdine10-3.6-0.9
4938Luka VudragovicG6-61ReturningPepperdine10-4.1-1.0
5013Danilo DozicF6-102ReturningPepperdine24-2.9-1.8

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02atCornell #109-10.819%
Wed Nov 11atSam Houston #185-7.627%
Sun Nov 15atOregon #58-15.710%
Thu Nov 19vsUC Santa Barbara #103-0.848%
Mon Nov 23vsUNC Greensboro #246+4.965%
Wed Nov 25vsCal State Bakersfield #328+8.675%
Sat Nov 28NLehigh #256+0.351%
Tue Dec 01atAbilene Christian #192-7.228%
Sat Dec 05vsFlorida Gulf Coast #299+7.071%
Wed Dec 09vsPrairie View A&M #341+9.477%
Sun Dec 13atSacramento State #199-7.428%
Fri Dec 18atMontana #222-6.729%
Mon Dec 21vsQuinnipiac #200+3.661%
Tue Dec 29atLoyola Marymount #170conf-5.333%
Sat Jan 02atPortland #339conf+1.555%
Wed Jan 06atSeattle U #111conf-8.225%
Sat Jan 09vsLoyola Marymount #170conf-0.648%
Wed Jan 13vsDenver #240conf+1.755%
Sat Jan 16vsSaint Mary's #60conf-7.627%
Wed Jan 20atSanta Clara #63conf-12.715%
Sat Jan 23atSan Francisco #189conf-4.137%
Wed Jan 27vsSan Diego #263conf+2.558%
Sat Jan 30atPacific #175conf-3.838%
Sat Feb 06atDenver #240conf-1.744%
Wed Feb 10vsSeattle U #111conf-3.439%
Sat Feb 13vsSanta Clara #63conf-7.827%
Wed Feb 17atSan Diego #263conf-1.446%
Sun Feb 21atSaint Mary's #60conf-12.715%
Wed Feb 24vsPortland #339conf+6.069%
Sat Feb 27vsPacific #175conf-0.548%

Projected margin is from Pepperdine's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.