Teams › ACC · Compare Duke with another team
Duke
Duke returns 41% of last season's minutes and rates #3 on both offense and defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +19.1 to +34.0.
Why we have them here
Duke's preseason projection of +26.6 (No. 2 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +12.9, about the +12.2 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 2 at the end of 2025-26) adds +5.8, more than its neighbours' +4.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +6.2. A stretch at the top of the scale adds +1.4, because a straight-line calibration shrinks elite teams. It returns 41% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (40%). The projection leans most on Patrick Ngongba II (+6.2), John Blackwell (+5.3) and Cayden Boozer (+3.3); the newcomer who matters most is John Blackwell, a transfer from Wisconsin, at +5.3. Its 80% range, +19.1 to +34.0, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 41% · Transfer 29% · Freshman 29% · Other newcomer 1%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Patrick Ngongba II | C | 6-11 | 2 | Returning | Duke | 22 | +11.4 | +6.2 |
| 49 | John Blackwell | G | 6-4 | 3 | Transfer | Wisconsin | 27 | +7.8 | +5.3 |
| 155 | Cayden Boozer | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | Duke | 21 | +6.2 | +3.3 |
| 343 | Caleb Foster | G | 6-5 | 3 | Returning | Duke | 19 | +4.6 | +2.2 |
| 351 | Dame Sarr | G | 6-8 | 1 | Returning | Duke | 19 | +4.6 | +2.2 |
| 369 | Drew Scharnowski | F | 6-9 | 2 | Transfer | Belmont | 17 | +4.8 | +2.0 |
| 479 | Cameron Williams | F | 6-11 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 16 | +4.0 | +1.6 |
| 627 | Deron Rippey Jr. | G | 6-2 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 17 | +3.1 | +1.3 |
| 955 | Bryson Howard | G | 6-4 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 15 | +1.9 | +0.7 |
| 1486 | Nick Arnold | F | 5-11 | 0 | Other newcomer | 1 | +1.2 | +0.0 | |
| 1556 | Sebastian Wilkins | F | 6-8 | 0 | Other newcomer | 1 | +0.6 | +0.0 | |
| 1573 | Brock Davis | G | 6-5 | 0 | Other newcomer | 1 | +0.5 | +0.0 | |
| 1603 | Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje | F | 7-0 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 7 | +0.1 | +0.0 |
| 1685 | Maxime Meyer | C | 7-1 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 2 | -0.1 | +0.0 |
| 1692 | Jacob Theodosiou | G | 6-4 | 3 | Transfer | Loyola Maryland | 15 | -0.1 | +0.0 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  Army #314 | +29.7 | >99% | |
| Thu Nov 05 | vs |  Coastal Carolina #301 | +29.2 | >99% | |
| Tue Nov 10 | N |  Michigan State #6 | +2.6 | 59% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | vs |  SIU Edwardsville #234 | +25.8 | 98% | |
| Tue Nov 17 | vs |  Illinois #5 | +8.5 | 76% | |
| Sat Nov 21 | N |  Washington State #162 | +17.7 | 93% | |
| Wed Nov 25 | N |  UConn #4 | +2.0 | 57% | |
| Tue Dec 01 | at |  Florida #1 | -9.7 | 22% | |
| Fri Dec 04 | vs |  Harvard #123 | +21.2 | 96% | |
| Tue Dec 08 | N |  Georgia #32 | +8.5 | 75% | |
| Tue Dec 15 | vs |  Campbell #224 | +26.8 | 98% | |
| Thu Dec 17 | vs |  Grambling #302 | +28.8 | >99% | |
| Mon Dec 21 | N |  Texas Tech #15 | +4.4 | 64% | |
| Wed Dec 30 | at |  Georgia Tech #140 | conf | +15.3 | 89% |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  California #115 | conf | +19.2 | 94% |
| Tue Jan 05 | at |  Syracuse #71 | conf | +8.7 | 76% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  Pittsburgh #68 | conf | +14.3 | 88% |
| Wed Jan 13 | vs |  Stanford #69 | conf | +15.1 | 89% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Boston College #114 | conf | +12.9 | 85% |
| Wed Jan 20 | at |  Wake Forest #76 | conf | +9.3 | 78% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs |  Notre Dame #75 | conf | +15.4 | 89% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at |  Clemson #46 | conf | +6.2 | 69% |
| Mon Feb 01 | vs |  Miami #18 | conf | +8.6 | 76% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at |  Virginia #19 | conf | +1.2 | 54% |
| Tue Feb 09 | at |  SMU #53 | conf | +7.1 | 72% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs |  North Carolina #54 | conf | +13.6 | 87% |
| Tue Feb 16 | vs |  Florida State #90 | conf | +17.3 | 92% |
| Sat Feb 20 | N |  Gonzaga #14 | +4.5 | 64% | |
| Wed Feb 24 | at |  Louisville #7 | conf | +0.3 | 51% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs |  NC State #36 | conf | +12.3 | 84% |
| Mon Mar 01 | vs | Virginia #19 | conf | +8.6 | 76% |
| Sat Mar 06 | at | North Carolina #54 | conf | +6.6 | 70% |
Projected margin is from Duke's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.