Roster Math

Teams › Am. East · Compare UAlbany with another team

UAlbany

UAlbany returns 82% of last season's minutes and rates #311 on offense and #256 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -13.8 to +1.0.

-6.5
Rating · #293 of 365
-4.6
Offense · #311
-1.9
Defense · #256
-13.8 to +1.0
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
14-17
Projected record · 9 to 20 wins
8-8
Projected in Am. East · 5 to 12 wins

Why we have them here

UAlbany's preseason projection of -6.5 (No. 293 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -4.8, less than the -3.5 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 283 at the end of 2025-26) adds -1.3, about its neighbours' -1.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -0.8. It returns 82% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (68%). The projection leans most on Pedro Santos (+0.5), Okechukwu Okeke (+0.4) and Zacharie Matulu (-0.3); the newcomer who matters most is Pedro Santos, a transfer from UT Martin, at +0.5. Its 80% range, -13.8 to +1.0, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 73% · Transfer 13% · Freshman 5% · Other newcomer 9%

Pedro Santos+0.5
Okechukwu Okeke+0.4
Zacharie Matulu-0.3
Kean Webb-0.3
Ife West-Ingram-0.4
Bautista Giralt-0.4
Wilkin Paulino-0.4
Tyler Jones-0.5
Sully Adewale-0.6
Nas Muhammad-0.9
Tarique Foster-0.9
Ma'Kye Taylor-1.7
Miles Rose-1.8
Abdoulaye Fall-1.9
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
1131Pedro SantosG6-71TransferUT Martin18+1.1+0.5
1240Okechukwu OkekeF6-103ReturningUAlbany25+0.6+0.4
2341Zacharie MatuluG6-42ReturningUAlbany23-0.6-0.3
2881Ife West-IngramF6-73ReturningUAlbany14-1.1-0.4
3134Kean WebbF6-112TransferPortland State8-1.6-0.3
3647Wilkin PaulinoF6-20Other newcomer9-2.0-0.4
3760Tyler JonesG6-30FreshmanHigh school11-1.9-0.5
3868Bautista GiraltC7-02ReturningUAlbany7-2.6-0.4
4086Sully AdewaleF6-83Other newcomer10-2.4-0.6
4425Tarique FosterF6-83ReturningUAlbany17-2.2-0.9
4435Nas MuhammadG6-13ReturningUAlbany16-2.3-0.9
5154Abdoulaye FallG6-101ReturningUAlbany19-4.2-1.9
5182Miles RoseG6-43ReturningUAlbany13-5.4-1.8
5196Ma'Kye TaylorF6-72ReturningUAlbany12-5.9-1.7

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Thu Nov 05atManhattan #309-4.336%
Sun Nov 08vsMerrimack #176+1.254%
Wed Nov 11vsDartmouth #290+5.266%
Sun Nov 15atHoly Cross #352-0.947%
Fri Nov 20NWestern Illinois #362+6.670%
Sat Nov 21atCanisius #346-1.944%
Sun Nov 22NMercyhurst #239-1.944%
Wed Nov 25atSyracuse #71-16.99%
Tue Dec 01atPenn State #89-15.410%
Sat Dec 05vsArmy #314+6.269%
Tue Dec 08atCornell #109-12.316%
Sat Dec 12vsSiena #208+2.157%
Wed Dec 16atSt. Bonaventure #126-11.218%
Sat Dec 19atDrexel #254-7.228%
Tue Dec 29vsColumbia #169+1.053%
Thu Jan 07vsBryant #327conf+3.661%
Sat Jan 09vsBinghamton #330conf+3.762%
Thu Jan 14atNJIT #347conf+1.454%
Mon Jan 18atUMBC #180conf-4.934%
Thu Jan 21vsNew Hampshire #335conf+4.263%
Sat Jan 23vsMaine #318conf+3.361%
Thu Jan 28atUMass Lowell #287conf-3.339%
Sat Jan 30atVermont #202conf-5.533%
Thu Feb 04vsNJIT #347conf+5.567%
Sat Feb 06vsUMBC #180conf-1.645%
Thu Feb 11atBryant #327conf-1.545%
Sat Feb 13vsVermont #202conf-0.947%
Wed Feb 17atBinghamton #330conf-0.748%
Thu Feb 25atNew Hampshire #335conf-0.449%
Sat Feb 27atMaine #318conf-0.847%
Tue Mar 02vsUMass Lowell #287conf+1.956%

Projected margin is from UAlbany's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.