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UAlbany
UAlbany returns 82% of last season's minutes and rates #311 on offense and #256 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -13.8 to +1.0.
Why we have them here
UAlbany's preseason projection of -6.5 (No. 293 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -4.8, less than the -3.5 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 283 at the end of 2025-26) adds -1.3, about its neighbours' -1.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -0.8. It returns 82% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (68%). The projection leans most on Pedro Santos (+0.5), Okechukwu Okeke (+0.4) and Zacharie Matulu (-0.3); the newcomer who matters most is Pedro Santos, a transfer from UT Martin, at +0.5. Its 80% range, -13.8 to +1.0, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 73% · Transfer 13% · Freshman 5% · Other newcomer 9%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1131 | Pedro Santos | G | 6-7 | 1 | Transfer | UT Martin | 18 | +1.1 | +0.5 |
| 1240 | Okechukwu Okeke | F | 6-10 | 3 | Returning | UAlbany | 25 | +0.6 | +0.4 |
| 2341 | Zacharie Matulu | G | 6-4 | 2 | Returning | UAlbany | 23 | -0.6 | -0.3 |
| 2881 | Ife West-Ingram | F | 6-7 | 3 | Returning | UAlbany | 14 | -1.1 | -0.4 |
| 3134 | Kean Webb | F | 6-11 | 2 | Transfer | Portland State | 8 | -1.6 | -0.3 |
| 3647 | Wilkin Paulino | F | 6-2 | 0 | Other newcomer | 9 | -2.0 | -0.4 | |
| 3760 | Tyler Jones | G | 6-3 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 11 | -1.9 | -0.5 |
| 3868 | Bautista Giralt | C | 7-0 | 2 | Returning | UAlbany | 7 | -2.6 | -0.4 |
| 4086 | Sully Adewale | F | 6-8 | 3 | Other newcomer | 10 | -2.4 | -0.6 | |
| 4425 | Tarique Foster | F | 6-8 | 3 | Returning | UAlbany | 17 | -2.2 | -0.9 |
| 4435 | Nas Muhammad | G | 6-1 | 3 | Returning | UAlbany | 16 | -2.3 | -0.9 |
| 5154 | Abdoulaye Fall | G | 6-10 | 1 | Returning | UAlbany | 19 | -4.2 | -1.9 |
| 5182 | Miles Rose | G | 6-4 | 3 | Returning | UAlbany | 13 | -5.4 | -1.8 |
| 5196 | Ma'Kye Taylor | F | 6-7 | 2 | Returning | UAlbany | 12 | -5.9 | -1.7 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Nov 05 | at | -4.3 | 36% | ||
| Sun Nov 08 | vs | +1.2 | 54% | ||
| Wed Nov 11 | vs | +5.2 | 66% | ||
| Sun Nov 15 | at | -0.9 | 47% | ||
| Fri Nov 20 | N | +6.6 | 70% | ||
| Sat Nov 21 | at | -1.9 | 44% | ||
| Sun Nov 22 | N | -1.9 | 44% | ||
| Wed Nov 25 | at | -16.9 | 9% | ||
| Tue Dec 01 | at | -15.4 | 10% | ||
| Sat Dec 05 | vs | +6.2 | 69% | ||
| Tue Dec 08 | at | -12.3 | 16% | ||
| Sat Dec 12 | vs | +2.1 | 57% | ||
| Wed Dec 16 | at | -11.2 | 18% | ||
| Sat Dec 19 | at | -7.2 | 28% | ||
| Tue Dec 29 | vs | +1.0 | 53% | ||
| Thu Jan 07 | vs | conf | +3.6 | 61% | |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs | conf | +3.7 | 62% | |
| Thu Jan 14 | at | conf | +1.4 | 54% | |
| Mon Jan 18 | at | conf | -4.9 | 34% | |
| Thu Jan 21 | vs | conf | +4.2 | 63% | |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs | conf | +3.3 | 61% | |
| Thu Jan 28 | at | conf | -3.3 | 39% | |
| Sat Jan 30 | at | conf | -5.5 | 33% | |
| Thu Feb 04 | vs | conf | +5.5 | 67% | |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs | conf | -1.6 | 45% | |
| Thu Feb 11 | at | conf | -1.5 | 45% | |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | conf | -0.9 | 47% | |
| Wed Feb 17 | at | conf | -0.7 | 48% | |
| Thu Feb 25 | at | conf | -0.4 | 49% | |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | conf | -0.8 | 47% | |
| Tue Mar 02 | vs | conf | +1.9 | 56% |
Projected margin is from UAlbany's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.