Roster Math

Teams › Metro · Compare Marist with another team

Marist

Marist returns 63% of last season's minutes and rates #298 on offense and #113 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -9.2 to +5.6.

-1.9
Rating · #205 of 365
-3.9
Offense · #298
+2.0
Defense · #113
-9.2 to +5.6
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
16-13
Projected record · 10 to 21 wins
12-8
Projected in Metro · 8 to 16 wins

Why we have them here

Marist's preseason projection of -1.9 (No. 205 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -0.9, about the -1.2 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 141 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.0, about its neighbours' -0.3; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -1.4. It returns 63% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (66%). The projection leans most on Elijah Lewis (+1.9), Myles Parker (+1.2) and Parby Kabamba (+1.0); the newcomer who matters most is Drew Diaz, a newcomer from outside Division I, at -0.2. Its 80% range, -9.2 to +5.6, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 63% · Transfer 11% · Freshman 4% · Other newcomer 22%

Elijah Lewis+1.9
Myles Parker+1.2
Parby Kabamba+1.0
Jordan Gabriel+0.1
Drew Diaz-0.2
Josh Williams-0.2
Brandon Arnold-0.2
Cameron Sweeney-0.2
Brady MacAdams-0.2
Edward Onyia-0.2
Logan Rodriguez-0.3
Antoni Vlogianitis-0.3
Logan Franz-0.3
Tarik Watson-0.3
Ricky McKenzie-0.4
Dywane Chess-0.4
Martin Kawa-0.5
Jadin Collins-Roberts-1.0
Jack Graham-1.4
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
523Elijah LewisG6-52ReturningMarist26+3.0+1.9
671Myles ParkerF6-81ReturningMarist17+2.9+1.2
848Parby KabambaF6-62ReturningMarist20+2.0+1.0
1474Jordan GabrielC6-91ReturningMarist9+0.4+0.1
2392Drew DiazF6-20Other newcomer5-1.3-0.2
2436Cameron SweeneyF6-20Other newcomer5-1.3-0.2
2451Josh WilliamsF6-30Other newcomer5-1.4-0.2
2451Brandon ArnoldF6-30Other newcomer5-1.4-0.2
2595Brady MacAdamsF6-50Other newcomer5-1.5-0.2
2719Tarik WatsonC6-82ReturningMarist10-1.2-0.3
2753Edward OnyiaF6-70Other newcomer6-1.6-0.2
2917Logan RodriguezF6-90Other newcomer6-1.7-0.3
3088Logan FranzF6-110Other newcomer6-1.9-0.3
3407Antoni VlogianitisG6-42ReturningMarist4-2.6-0.3
3625Dywane ChessG6-30FreshmanHigh school9-2.0-0.4
3964Ricky McKenzieG6-51ReturningMarist6-2.8-0.4
4231Jadin Collins-RobertsG6-12ReturningMarist27-1.6-1.0
4260Martin KawaG6-42ReturningMarist7-3.1-0.5
4831Jack GrahamG6-33TransferNew Hampshire23-2.5-1.4

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02vsDartmouth #290+8.576%
Thu Nov 05vsUMBC #180+4.665%
Sun Nov 08atUMass Lowell #287-3.339%
Fri Nov 13atLehigh #256-3.439%
Tue Nov 17atArmy #314+0.150%
Tue Nov 24vsBryant #327+9.779%
Sat Nov 28atGeorge Mason #107-9.921%
Fri Dec 04vsSacred Heart #272conf+4.665%
Sun Dec 06atIona #282conf+0.150%
Sun Dec 20atTennessee #13-21.64%
Tue Dec 22atCincinnati #42-16.98%
Tue Dec 29atMount St. Mary's #204conf-1.745%
Fri Jan 01vsCanisius #346conf+8.375%
Sun Jan 03vsNiagara #329conf+6.671%
Fri Jan 08atMerrimack #176conf-2.841%
Sun Jan 10atQuinnipiac #200conf-2.043%
Wed Jan 13vsManhattan #309conf+6.269%
Mon Jan 18atRider #351conf+4.966%
Fri Jan 22vsMerrimack #176conf+1.455%
Sun Jan 24atSacred Heart #272conf-0.648%
Fri Jan 29vsIona #282conf+5.266%
Sun Jan 31vsSiena #208conf+2.458%
Fri Feb 05atNiagara #329conf+2.959%
Sun Feb 07atCanisius #346conf+3.963%
Thu Feb 11vsFairfield #248conf+3.762%
Sat Feb 13atSaint Peter's #289conf+0.552%
Fri Feb 19vsMount St. Mary's #204conf+2.458%
Sun Feb 21vsRider #351conf+9.177%
Sun Feb 28atSiena #208conf-1.944%

Projected margin is from Marist's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.