Roster Math

Teams › Horizon · Compare Milwaukee with another team

Milwaukee

Milwaukee returns 65% of last season's minutes and rates #233 on offense and #252 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -10.9 to +3.9.

-3.6
Rating · #242 of 365
-1.8
Offense · #233
-1.8
Defense · #252
-10.9 to +3.9
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
12-19
Projected record · 7 to 18 wins
10-10
Projected in Horizon · 5 to 14 wins

Why we have them here

Milwaukee's preseason projection of -3.6 (No. 242 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -3.7, less than the -2.4 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 263 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.8, about its neighbours' -0.7; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +0.7. It returns 65% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (68%). The projection leans most on Chandler Jackson (+1.0), Aaron Franklin (+0.1) and Jake Hansen (-0.2); the newcomer who matters most is Jake Hansen, a transfer from Oklahoma, at -0.2. Its 80% range, -10.9 to +3.9, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 60% · Transfer 17% · Other newcomer 12%

Chandler Jackson+1.0
Aaron Franklin+0.1
Jake Hansen-0.2
Tre Norman-0.3
Austin Villarreal-0.5
Ned Renfree-0.6
Aaron Womack-0.6
Al Amadou-0.7
Simeon Murchison-0.9
Tate Mackenzie-1.1
Esyah Pippa-White-1.2
Isaiah Dorceus-1.2
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
890Chandler JacksonF6-71ReturningMilwaukee24+1.7+1.0
1454Aaron FranklinG6-53ReturningMilwaukee25+0.2+0.1
2137Jake HansenG6-01TransferOklahoma10-0.6-0.2
2527Tre NormanG6-43TransferMarquette14-0.9-0.3
3799Ned RenfreeF6-20Other newcomer12-1.9-0.6
3807Austin VillarrealG6-12ReturningMilwaukee8-2.2-0.5
4012Aaron WomackF6-60Other newcomer11-2.1-0.6
4281Al AmadouF6-93TransferSaint Joseph's10-2.6-0.7
4560Isaiah DorceusG6-01ReturningMilwaukee22-2.1-1.2
4618Esyah Pippa-WhiteG6-22ReturningMilwaukee20-2.3-1.2
4835Simeon MurchisonF6-93ReturningMilwaukee10-3.9-0.9
4976Tate MackenzieF6-101ReturningMilwaukee10-4.2-1.1

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02atUSC #35-19.26%
Wed Nov 04atSanta Clara #63-15.610%
Wed Nov 11atIndiana State #116-11.218%
Fri Nov 13atTCU #51-17.78%
Sat Nov 21vsSt. Thomas-Minnesota #130+1.655%
Tue Nov 24atFlorida #1-31.4<1%
Sun Nov 29atOregon State #93-13.613%
Thu Dec 03vsWright State #165conf+0.150%
Sat Dec 05atNorthern Illinois #333conf+2.157%
Tue Dec 08atSouth Dakota State #213-6.530%
Sat Dec 12vsUIC #120+1.354%
Tue Dec 15atLittle Rock #320-1.744%
Mon Dec 21atVanderbilt #26-20.35%
Wed Dec 30atDetroit Mercy #312conf+0.752%
Sun Jan 03atOakland #159conf-5.134%
Thu Jan 07vsPurdue Fort Wayne #212conf+1.755%
Sat Jan 09vsNorthern Kentucky #270conf+3.862%
Thu Jan 14atCleveland State #207conf-3.938%
Sun Jan 17vsYoungstown State #215conf+1.756%
Wed Jan 20vsOakland #159conf-0.249%
Sat Jan 23atGreen Bay #281conf-1.047%
Wed Jan 27vsRobert Morris #113conf-2.243%
Sat Jan 30vsNorthern Illinois #333conf+6.670%
Thu Feb 04atPurdue Fort Wayne #212conf-3.838%
Sun Feb 07vsGreen Bay #281conf+3.963%
Thu Feb 11atNorthern Kentucky #270conf-1.645%
Sat Feb 13atWright State #165conf-5.034%
Fri Feb 19vsIU Indianapolis #279conf+4.364%
Sun Feb 21vsCleveland State #207conf+1.655%
Wed Feb 24atRobert Morris #113conf-7.228%
Sat Feb 27atYoungstown State #215conf-3.539%

Projected margin is from Milwaukee's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.