Teams › MVC · Compare Northern Iowa with another team
Northern Iowa
Northern Iowa returns 61% of last season's minutes and rates #127 on offense and #46 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -0.4 to +14.0.
Why we have them here
Northern Iowa's preseason projection of +6.8 (No. 88 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +3.9, about the +3.8 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 60 at the end of 2025-26) adds +1.5, about its neighbours' +1.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +1.0. It returns 61% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (42%). The projection leans most on Tristan Smith (+4.4), Tate McCubbin (+2.0) and Isaiah Johnson-Arigu (+1.3); the newcomer who matters most is Tate McCubbin, a transfer from Austin Peay, at +2.0. Its 80% range, -0.4 to +14.0, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 51% · Transfer 39% · Other newcomer 10%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76 | Tristan Smith | F | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | Northern Iowa | 24 | +7.3 | +4.4 |
| 498 | Tate McCubbin | G | 6-8 | 2 | Transfer | Austin Peay | 27 | +3.1 | +2.0 |
| 706 | Isaiah Johnson-Arigu | F | 6-7 | 2 | Transfer | St. Thomas-Minnesota | 23 | +2.4 | +1.3 |
| 899 | Max Weisbrod | G | 6-4 | 2 | Returning | Northern Iowa | 26 | +1.6 | +1.0 |
| 1353 | Ian Smikle | F | 6-8 | 2 | Transfer | Tulsa | 14 | +0.6 | +0.2 |
| 1358 | RJ Taylor | G | 5-11 | 3 | Returning | Northern Iowa | 12 | +0.6 | +0.2 |
| 1868 | Kyle Pock | F | 6-6 | 3 | Returning | Northern Iowa | 13 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| 1974 | Redek Born | F | 6-3 | 2 | Other newcomer | 4 | -0.8 | -0.1 | |
| 2024 | Levi Valdo | F | 6-4 | 0 | Other newcomer | 4 | -0.8 | -0.1 | |
| 2209 | Jalen Wilson | F | 6-8 | 0 | Other newcomer | 4 | -1.1 | -0.1 | |
| 2209 | Cade Courbat | F | 6-8 | 0 | Other newcomer | 4 | -1.1 | -0.1 | |
| 2318 | Marino Dubravcic | F | 6-10 | 2 | Other newcomer | 5 | -1.2 | -0.1 | |
| 2328 | Geon Hutchins | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | Northern Iowa | 9 | -0.9 | -0.2 |
| 2352 | Hunter Jacobson | G | 6-1 | 2 | Returning | Northern Iowa | 5 | -1.2 | -0.1 |
| 2423 | Ismael Diouf | F | 6-9 | 2 | Returning | Northern Iowa | 11 | -0.9 | -0.2 |
| 3696 | Carson Vis | G | 6-3 | 1 | Transfer | Western Michigan | 14 | -1.7 | -0.6 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 07 | at |  Furman #110 | -3.1 | 40% | |
| Tue Nov 10 | vs |  Green Bay #281 | +12.7 | 85% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | at |  Michigan State #6 | -16.2 | 9% | |
| Sat Nov 14 | at |  Oakland #159 | -0.9 | 47% | |
| Tue Nov 17 | vs |  Lindenwood #258 | +13.3 | 86% | |
| Mon Nov 23 | N |  Davidson #132 | +2.8 | 59% | |
| Wed Nov 25 | N |  Charlotte #131 | +2.8 | 59% | |
| Sat Nov 28 | vs |  Robert Morris #113 | +7.3 | 73% | |
| Tue Dec 01 | at |  Kansas #10 | -17.0 | 8% | |
| Fri Dec 11 | at |  UC Irvine #105 | -3.5 | 39% | |
| Fri Dec 18 | at |  Southern Illinois #206 | conf | +3.5 | 61% |
| Mon Dec 21 | vs |  Bradley #194 | conf | +8.0 | 74% |
| Tue Dec 29 | at |  Belmont #94 | conf | -1.6 | 45% |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  Evansville #317 | conf | +11.9 | 84% |
| Tue Jan 05 | vs |  Valparaiso #172 | conf | +6.9 | 72% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  Indiana State #116 | conf | -0.6 | 48% |
| Tue Jan 12 | vs |  Illinois State #108 | conf | +4.2 | 63% |
| Mon Jan 18 | at | Valparaiso #172 | conf | +2.3 | 57% |
| Thu Jan 21 | vs |  Murray State #117 | conf | +5.0 | 66% |
| Sun Jan 24 | at | Evansville #317 | conf | +6.4 | 70% |
| Wed Jan 27 | vs |  UIC #120 | conf | +5.0 | 66% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at |  Drake #104 | conf | -0.5 | 48% |
| Wed Feb 03 | at | Illinois State #108 | conf | -1.3 | 46% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs | Southern Illinois #206 | conf | +8.3 | 75% |
| Tue Feb 09 | vs | Indiana State #116 | conf | +4.9 | 66% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at | UIC #120 | conf | +0.7 | 52% |
| Mon Feb 15 | at | Bradley #194 | conf | +2.4 | 58% |
| Sun Feb 21 | vs | Drake #104 | conf | +4.0 | 63% |
| Wed Feb 24 | at | Murray State #117 | conf | +0.4 | 51% |
| Sun Feb 28 | vs | Belmont #94 | conf | +2.9 | 59% |
Projected margin is from Northern Iowa's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.