Teams › Summit · Compare South Dakota State with another team
South Dakota State
South Dakota State returns 80% of last season's minutes and rates #174 on offense and #257 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -9.5 to +5.2.
Why we have them here
South Dakota State's preseason projection of -2.2 (No. 213 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -2.8, less than the -1.3 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 212 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.3, about its neighbours' -0.4; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +0.7. It returns 80% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (64%). The projection leans most on Kalen Garry (+1.5), Trey Buchanan (-0.2) and Jon Mekonnen (-0.2); the newcomer who matters most is Jon Mekonnen, a transfer from Colorado State, at -0.2. Its 80% range, -9.5 to +5.2, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 76% · Transfer 15% · Other newcomer 5%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 688 | Kalen Garry | G | 6-3 | 3 | Returning | South Dakota State | 26 | +2.3 | +1.5 |
| 2012 | Trey Buchanan | G | 6-0 | 1 | Returning | South Dakota State | 15 | -0.4 | -0.2 |
| 2254 | Joe Sayler | G | 6-3 | 2 | Returning | South Dakota State | 26 | -0.5 | -0.3 |
| 2288 | Jon Mekonnen | F | 6-8 | 1 | Transfer | Colorado State | 8 | -0.8 | -0.2 |
| 2387 | Alec Squires | C | 6-10 | 1 | Returning | South Dakota State | 16 | -0.7 | -0.3 |
| 3217 | Andrell Burton Jr. | G | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | South Dakota State | 8 | -1.8 | -0.3 |
| 3403 | Caleb Delzell | F | 6-9 | 1 | Returning | South Dakota State | 13 | -1.5 | -0.5 |
| 3662 | Jadyn Cascio Jensen | G | 6-3 | 1 | Returning | South Dakota State | 7 | -2.3 | -0.4 |
| 3798 | Davis Kern | F | 6-9 | 0 | Other newcomer | 10 | -2.1 | -0.5 | |
| 4137 | Luke Haertle | G | 6-3 | 3 | Returning | South Dakota State | 15 | -2.0 | -0.7 |
| 4265 | Jaden Rogers | G | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | South Dakota State | 11 | -2.5 | -0.7 |
| 4287 | Bubz Alvarez | G | 6-5 | 3 | Returning | South Dakota State | 14 | -2.2 | -0.8 |
| 4981 | EJ Ryans | G | 6-3 | 2 | Transfer | Western Michigan | 22 | -2.9 | -1.6 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Nov 03 | at |  Kansas State #99 | -11.2 | 18% | |
| Wed Nov 11 | vs |  Valparaiso #172 | +4.1 | 63% | |
| Sat Nov 14 | at |  Northern Colorado #128 | -8.1 | 26% | |
| Fri Nov 20 | at |  Idaho State #261 | -3.6 | 38% | |
| Wed Nov 25 | vs |  Abilene Christian #192 | +4.9 | 66% | |
| Sat Nov 28 | N |  South Alabama #228 | +0.4 | 51% | |
| Sun Nov 29 | N |  Fresno State #221 | +0.1 | 50% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | at | Abilene Christian #192 | -5.9 | 31% | |
| Tue Dec 08 | vs |  Milwaukee #242 | +6.5 | 70% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | vs |  Idaho #251 | +6.7 | 71% | |
| Fri Dec 18 | at |  Eastern Kentucky #264 | -3.7 | 38% | |
| Mon Dec 21 | vs |  Green Bay #281 | +7.5 | 73% | |
| Tue Dec 29 | at |  Nevada #66 | -13.9 | 13% | |
| Thu Jan 07 | at |  Kansas City #338 | conf | +2.5 | 58% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  Oral Roberts #323 | conf | +2.4 | 58% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  South Dakota #322 | conf | +1.3 | 54% |
| Thu Jan 21 | vs |  North Dakota State #225 | conf | +2.8 | 59% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs |  North Dakota #310 | conf | +6.1 | 69% |
| Thu Jan 28 | at |  St. Thomas-Minnesota #130 | conf | -5.8 | 32% |
| Sun Jan 31 | at |  Omaha #274 | conf | +0.0 | 50% |
| Thu Feb 04 | vs | Oral Roberts #323 | conf | +6.9 | 71% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs | Kansas City #338 | conf | +7.7 | 73% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | South Dakota #322 | conf | +7.0 | 72% |
| Thu Feb 18 | at | North Dakota #310 | conf | +1.3 | 54% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at | North Dakota State #225 | conf | -1.7 | 44% |
| Thu Feb 25 | vs | Omaha #274 | conf | +4.4 | 64% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs | St. Thomas-Minnesota #130 | conf | -0.7 | 48% |
Projected margin is from South Dakota State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.