Roster Math

Teams › Mountain West · Compare Grand Canyon with another team

Grand Canyon

Grand Canyon returns 26% of last season's minutes and rates #68 on offense and #62 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +3.0 to +17.6.

+10.3
Rating · #59 of 365
+5.7
Offense · #68
+4.6
Defense · #62
+3.0 to +17.6
80% range
8%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
21-9
Projected record · 17 to 26 wins
13-5
Projected in Mountain West · 9 to 16 wins

Why we have them here

Grand Canyon's preseason projection of +10.3 (No. 59 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +5.7, less than the +6.5 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 70 at the end of 2025-26) adds +1.3, about its neighbours' +1.5; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +2.7. It returns 26% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (38%). The projection leans most on Dylan Darling (+3.8), Makaih Williams (+2.5) and Blake Barkley (+1.7); the newcomer who matters most is Dylan Darling, a transfer from St. John's, at +3.8. Its 80% range, +3.0 to +17.6, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 22% · Transfer 74% · Other newcomer 5%

Dylan Darling+3.8
Makaih Williams+2.5
Blake Barkley+1.7
Tre Holloman+1.5
Dan Skillings Jr.+1.2
Omaha Biliew+0.8
Efe Demirel+0.7
Amarion Dickerson+0.1
Micah Tucker+0.0
Luke Shaw-0.1
Cole Pepe-0.1
Braylon Johnson-0.1
Jack Sawyer-0.1
Jaden Zimmerman-0.7
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
92Dylan DarlingG6-14TransferSt. John's19+7.9+3.8
336Makaih WilliamsG6-23ReturningGrand Canyon23+4.3+2.5
541Blake BarkleyF6-82TransferEast Tennessee State21+3.2+1.7
563Tre HollomanG6-24TransferNC State19+3.2+1.5
723Dan Skillings Jr.G6-64TransferBaylor18+2.6+1.2
939Omaha BiliewF6-83TransferWake Forest17+1.8+0.8
977Efe DemirelC7-11ReturningGrand Canyon17+1.7+0.7
1427Amarion DickersonG6-72TransferUSC12+0.4+0.1
1700Micah TuckerG6-31TransferGeorgia State21-0.1+0.0
1993Luke ShawF6-30Other newcomer3-0.9-0.1
2012Cole PepeG6-41ReturningGrand Canyon3-0.9-0.1
2128Braylon JohnsonF6-70Other newcomer3-1.1-0.1
2171Jack SawyerF6-82Other newcomer3-1.2-0.1
3744Jaden ZimmermanG6-52TransferQuinnipiac20-1.4-0.7

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02vsTexas Southern #331+19.894%
Sat Nov 07vsBethune-Cookman #220+15.289%
Wed Nov 11vsCal Poly #223+16.190%
Sat Nov 14vsUL Monroe #359+23.797%
Tue Nov 24NSaint Louis #56-0.648%
Sun Nov 29vsIncarnate Word #308+17.793%
Wed Dec 02atOklahoma State #91-3.838%
Sat Dec 05vsSanta Clara #63+6.570%
Tue Dec 08vsNorthwestern State #277+16.291%
Fri Dec 11atMemphis #100-2.741%
Fri Dec 18NFlorida #1-14.712%
Tue Dec 22vsUMBC #180+13.486%
Sat Jan 02atUC Davis #255conf+8.676%
Tue Jan 05vsUNLV #139conf+9.377%
Sat Jan 09vsWyoming #121conf+8.074%
Wed Jan 13atSan José State #187conf+5.467%
Sat Jan 16atNevada #66conf-2.642%
Wed Jan 20vsHawai'i #179conf+10.881%
Sat Jan 23atNew Mexico #50conf-4.336%
Tue Jan 26vsAir Force #357conf+19.094%
Sat Jan 30atWyoming #121conf+2.357%
Sat Feb 06vsNew Mexico #50conf+1.755%
Tue Feb 09atUTEP #237conf+7.473%
Sat Feb 13vsNevada #66conf+3.561%
Tue Feb 16atAir Force #357conf+14.989%
Sat Feb 20atUNLV #139conf+3.561%
Tue Feb 23vsUTEP #237conf+12.384%
Fri Feb 26vsSan José State #187conf+10.480%
Tue Mar 02atHawai'i #179conf+5.266%
Sat Mar 06vsUC Davis #255conf+13.286%

Projected margin is from Grand Canyon's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.