Roster Math

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Cornell

Cornell returns 100% of last season's minutes and rates #84 on offense and #205 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -3.4 to +11.4.

+3.9
Rating · #109 of 365
+4.3
Offense · #84
-0.3
Defense · #205
-3.4 to +11.4
80% range
<1%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
14-12
Projected record · 9 to 20 wins
8-6
Projected in Ivy · 4 to 11 wins

Why we have them here

Cornell's preseason projection of +3.9 (No. 109 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -1.5, less than the +2.0 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 104 at the end of 2025-26) adds +1.4, more than its neighbours' +0.5; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +3.8. It returns 100% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (64%). The projection leans most on Mateen Rafiq (+1.1), Ian Imegwu (+1.0) and Kaspar Sepp (+0.1); the newcomer who matters most is Elijah Griffin, a newcomer from outside Division I, at -0.2. Its 80% range, -3.4 to +11.4, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 88% · Other newcomer 12%

Mateen Rafiq+1.1
Ian Imegwu+1.0
Kaspar Sepp+0.1
DaMaryon Fishburn+0.0
Elijah Griffin-0.2
Ty Iwanonkiw-0.3
AJ Rodriguez-0.3
Blake Lecklitner-0.3
AJ LaBeau-0.4
Anthony Nimani-0.4
Jax Abalos-0.5
Ryan Burbach-0.5
Gioacchino Panzini-0.6
Corbin Zentner-0.6
Jacob Beccles-1.0
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
711Ian ImegwuF6-93ReturningCornell13+3.1+1.0
729Mateen RafiqG6-02ReturningCornell15+2.8+1.1
1439Kaspar SeppF6-73ReturningCornell22+0.3+0.1
1718DaMaryon FishburnG6-51ReturningCornell15-0.1+0.0
2455Elijah GriffinF6-20Other newcomer8-1.1-0.2
2552Ty IwanonkiwF6-92ReturningCornell11-1.0-0.3
2731Anthony NimaniG6-42ReturningCornell18-0.9-0.4
2796AJ RodriguezF6-62Other newcomer8-1.3-0.3
3062Blake LecklitnerF6-90Other newcomer9-1.5-0.3
3316AJ LaBeauF6-102ReturningCornell9-1.7-0.4
3592Jax AbalosF6-81ReturningCornell11-1.8-0.5
3702Ryan BurbachG6-31ReturningCornell11-1.9-0.5
3790Corbin ZentnerG5-92ReturningCornell14-1.7-0.6
3797Gioacchino PanziniF6-52ReturningCornell14-1.7-0.6
4330Jacob BecclesG6-33ReturningCornell22-1.8-1.0

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02vsPepperdine #249+10.881%
Thu Nov 05atLehigh #256+0.652%
Wed Nov 11atSt. Bonaventure #126-4.636%
Sat Nov 14vsUNC Greensboro #246+10.780%
Wed Nov 18atSyracuse #71-10.620%
Sat Nov 21atMorgan State #348+4.865%
Tue Nov 24vsBucknell #313+13.686%
Wed Dec 02atLong Island University #210-1.944%
Sat Dec 05atColgate #197-1.944%
Tue Dec 08vsUAlbany #293+12.384%
Mon Dec 21atMonmouth #216-1.645%
Mon Dec 28atWashington #92-7.926%
Thu Dec 31atGonzaga #14-19.06%
Tue Jan 05atColumbia #169conf+0.451%
Sat Jan 09atDartmouth #290conf+4.865%
Fri Jan 15vsBrown #184conf+5.266%
Mon Jan 18vsYale #95conf+0.251%
Sat Jan 23vsHarvard #123conf+2.558%
Fri Jan 29atPennsylvania #144conf-0.548%
Sat Jan 30atPrinceton #164conf+0.251%
Fri Feb 05vsColumbia #169conf+4.865%
Fri Feb 12vsPennsylvania #144conf+3.862%
Sat Feb 13vsPrinceton #164conf+4.464%
Sat Feb 20atHarvard #123conf-0.548%
Fri Feb 26atBrown #184conf+1.455%
Sat Feb 27atYale #95conf-4.636%
Sat Mar 06vsDartmouth #290conf+9.377%

Projected margin is from Cornell's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.