Teams › Big West · Compare UC Santa Barbara with another team
UC Santa Barbara
UC Santa Barbara returns 57% of last season's minutes and rates #97 on offense and #140 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -2.8 to +11.7.
Why we have them here
UC Santa Barbara's preseason projection of +4.4 (No. 103 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +3.3, about the +2.6 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 170 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.2, about its neighbours' +0.5; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +0.6. It returns 57% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (56%). The projection leans most on Miro Little (+3.9), RJ Smith (+2.2) and Marvin McGhee IV (+2.1); the newcomer who matters most is RJ Smith, a transfer from DePaul, at +2.2. Its 80% range, -2.8 to +11.7, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 55% · Transfer 38% · Freshman 4% · Other newcomer 3%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 126 | Miro Little | G | 6-3 | 3 | Returning | UC Santa Barbara | 25 | +6.2 | +3.9 |
| 429 | Marvin McGhee IV | G | 6-7 | 2 | Returning | UC Santa Barbara | 22 | +3.8 | +2.1 |
| 435 | RJ Smith | G | 6-3 | 3 | Transfer | DePaul | 25 | +3.5 | +2.2 |
| 908 | CJ Shaw | G | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | UC Santa Barbara | 25 | +1.6 | +1.0 |
| 1197 | Eric Dibami | F | 6-10 | 1 | Transfer | Florida International | 23 | +0.8 | +0.4 |
| 2047 | Declan Duru Jr. | F | 6-8 | 1 | Transfer | Texas | 7 | -0.6 | -0.1 |
| 2439 | Antonio Chol | F | 6-9 | 4 | Transfer | New Mexico | 22 | -0.6 | -0.3 |
| 2569 | Jordan Charles | G | 6-0 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 8 | -1.2 | -0.2 |
| 2677 | Kyle Haughy | F | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | UC Santa Barbara | 4 | -1.7 | -0.2 |
| 3131 | Zachiah Clark | G | 6-2 | 2 | Returning | UC Santa Barbara | 8 | -1.6 | -0.3 |
| 3195 | Isaac Shingange | G | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | UC Santa Barbara | 5 | -2.1 | -0.3 |
| 3198 | Bryce Bedgood | F | 6-11 | 0 | Other newcomer | 6 | -2.0 | -0.3 | |
| 3336 | John Simcoe | F | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | UC Santa Barbara | 4 | -2.5 | -0.3 |
| 3906 | Michael Simcoe | F | 6-8 | 1 | Returning | UC Santa Barbara | 9 | -2.3 | -0.5 |
| 4655 | Luke Zuffelato | G | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | UC Santa Barbara | 6 | -4.2 | -0.6 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 07 | vs |  Oakland #159 | +8.1 | 75% | |
| Thu Nov 19 | at |  Pepperdine #249 | +0.8 | 52% | |
| Tue Nov 24 | vs |  UNC Greensboro #246 | +10.9 | 81% | |
| Fri Nov 27 | N |  Lehigh #256 | +5.9 | 68% | |
| Thu Dec 03 | at |  Cal State Bakersfield #328 | conf | +5.4 | 67% |
| Sat Dec 05 | vs |  Cal Poly #223 | conf | +7.6 | 73% |
| Sat Dec 12 | N |  Yale #95 | -1.1 | 46% | |
| Fri Dec 18 | vs |  Weber State #233 | +10.9 | 81% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | at |  Fresno State #221 | -0.7 | 48% | |
| Thu Dec 31 | at |  California Baptist #157 | conf | +0.3 | 51% |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  UC Riverside #252 | conf | +3.1 | 60% |
| Thu Jan 07 | vs |  Cal State Fullerton #236 | conf | +8.2 | 75% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  Long Beach State #278 | conf | +9.1 | 77% |
| Thu Jan 14 | at |  Utah Valley #112 | conf | -2.9 | 41% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Sacramento State #199 | conf | +1.8 | 56% |
| Thu Jan 21 | vs |  Cal State Northridge #227 | conf | +7.7 | 73% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs | Cal State Bakersfield #328 | conf | +11.5 | 82% |
| Thu Jan 28 | vs |  UC San Diego #77 | conf | -0.1 | 50% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs |  UC Irvine #105 | conf | +2.5 | 58% |
| Thu Feb 04 | at | Long Beach State #278 | conf | +5.0 | 66% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at | Cal State Fullerton #236 | conf | +3.6 | 61% |
| Thu Feb 11 | vs | UC Riverside #252 | conf | +8.0 | 74% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | California Baptist #157 | conf | +4.8 | 65% |
| Thu Feb 18 | at | Cal State Northridge #227 | conf | +2.8 | 59% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at | Cal Poly #223 | conf | +2.9 | 59% |
| Thu Feb 25 | at | UC Irvine #105 | conf | -2.2 | 43% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | UC San Diego #77 | conf | -4.3 | 36% |
| Thu Mar 04 | vs | Sacramento State #199 | conf | +6.8 | 71% |
| Sat Mar 06 | vs | Utah Valley #112 | conf | +2.9 | 59% |
Projected margin is from UC Santa Barbara's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.