Roster Math

Teams › SoCon · Compare Wofford with another team

Wofford

Wofford returns 68% of last season's minutes and rates #226 on offense and #347 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -14.4 to +0.2.

-7.0
Rating · #306 of 365
-1.6
Offense · #226
-5.4
Defense · #347
-14.4 to +0.2
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
11-18
Projected record · 6 to 16 wins
8-12
Projected in SoCon · 4 to 13 wins

Why we have them here

Wofford's preseason projection of -7.0 (No. 306 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -5.7, less than the -4.5 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 234 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.4, more than its neighbours' -1.4; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -1.3. It returns 68% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (71%). The projection leans most on Jayden Tyler (-0.3), Davis Miller (-0.5) and Grayson Collins (-0.5); the newcomer who matters most is Jyi Dawkins, a freshman, recruit No. 310, at -0.6. Its 80% range, -14.4 to +0.2, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 68% · Transfer 10% · Freshman 6%

Jayden Tyler-0.3
Davis Miller-0.5
Grayson Collins-0.5
Jyi Dawkins-0.6
Chris Arias-0.7
Cannon Richards-0.7
Callum Richard-0.7
Rex Stirling-0.9
Luke Flynn-1.2
Brian Sumpter-1.2
Chace Watley-2.0
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
2519Jayden TylerG5-101ReturningWofford16-0.8-0.3
3571Chris AriasG6-62TransferJacksonville20-1.3-0.7
3886Davis MillerG6-31ReturningWofford8-2.4-0.5
3923Jyi DawkinsG6-30FreshmanHigh school13-1.9-0.6
4144Grayson CollinsG5-111ReturningWofford7-2.8-0.5
4300Cannon RichardsF6-72ReturningWofford11-2.6-0.7
4385Rex StirlingF6-81ReturningWofford18-2.1-0.9
4414Callum RichardC6-103ReturningWofford10-2.8-0.7
4643Luke FlynnG6-12ReturningWofford22-2.2-1.2
4685Brian SumpterF6-81ReturningWofford22-2.3-1.2
5121Chace WatleyG6-21ReturningWofford22-3.6-2.0

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Tue Nov 03atTennessee #13-25.42%
Fri Nov 06atNorth Carolina #54-19.56%
Sat Nov 14atQueens University #142-11.817%
Wed Nov 18atCharleston Southern #276-6.929%
Sat Nov 21vsWinthrop #177+0.351%
Tue Nov 24vsQueens University #142-1.246%
Sat Nov 28atPurdue Fort Wayne #212-9.223%
Tue Dec 01atLa Salle #218-9.123%
Sat Dec 05atMercer #231conf-5.333%
Wed Dec 09vsGeorgia Southern #298+4.564%
Sat Dec 19atSamford #190conf-6.929%
Tue Dec 22vsWestern Carolina #152conf-3.838%
Wed Dec 30vsTennessee Tech #280conf+0.552%
Sat Jan 02atUNC Greensboro #246conf-4.835%
Wed Jan 06atThe Citadel #345conf+0.652%
Sat Jan 09vsMercer #231conf-1.147%
Wed Jan 13atVMI #350conf+0.652%
Sat Jan 16vsChattanooga #226conf-1.346%
Mon Jan 18atFurman #110conf-9.622%
Thu Jan 21vsThe Citadel #345conf+4.264%
Sat Jan 23vsEast Tennessee State #171conf-3.040%
Wed Jan 27atWestern Carolina #152conf-7.926%
Sat Jan 30vsSamford #190conf-2.542%
Wed Feb 03vsVMI #350conf+4.965%
Sat Feb 06atChattanooga #226conf-4.735%
Sat Feb 13atEast Tennessee State #171conf-7.228%
Thu Feb 18vsUNC Greensboro #246conf-0.748%
Sat Feb 20vsFurman #110conf-5.832%
Wed Feb 24atTennessee Tech #280conf-3.040%

Projected margin is from Wofford's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.