Roster Math

Teams › Summit · Compare Kansas City with another team

Kansas City

Kansas City returns 64% of last season's minutes and rates #323 on offense and #329 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -16.7 to -2.5.

-9.6
Rating · #338 of 365
-5.2
Offense · #323
-4.4
Defense · #329
-16.7 to -2.5
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
11-17
Projected record · 6 to 16 wins
6-8
Projected in Summit · 2 to 9 wins

Why we have them here

Kansas City's preseason projection of -9.6 (No. 338 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -5.7, about the -5.8 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 361 at the end of 2025-26) adds -4.2, less than its neighbours' -2.3; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +0.0. It returns 64% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (75%). The projection leans most on Jaylen Smith (+0.8), Assane Diop (+0.0) and Cameron Love (-0.1); the newcomer who matters most is Jaylen Smith, a transfer from East Tennessee State, at +0.8. Its 80% range, -16.7 to -2.5, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 54% · Transfer 25% · Freshman 11% · Other newcomer 10%

Jaylen Smith+0.8
Assane Diop+0.0
Cameron Love-0.1
DJ Jackson-0.2
Elliot Moskowitz-0.2
Josh Kori-0.2
Will Goode-0.3
Sebastian Hartmann-0.3
Matija Samar-0.4
Jayson Petty-0.5
Kernan Bundy-0.5
Cory Curtis Jr.-0.5
Max Sims-0.6
Jason Hilliard-0.6
Trey Booker-Lowery-0.7
Chris Dockery-0.7
Jamaria Clark-0.8
Addarin Scott-0.8
Kasheem Grady II-1.0
Karmello Branch-1.2
CJ Evans-2.0
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
930Jaylen SmithG5-113TransferEast Tennessee State17+1.8+0.8
1603Assane DiopF6-93TransferSan Diego12+0.1+0.0
2403Cameron LoveF6-40FreshmanHigh school4-1.5-0.1
2771Sebastian HartmannG6-63TransferChattanooga11-1.2-0.3
3010Jayson PettyG6-43ReturningKansas City22-0.9-0.5
3035DJ JacksonG6-20FreshmanHigh school5-2.1-0.2
3156Elliot MoskowitzG6-30FreshmanHigh school4-2.3-0.2
3194Matija SamarG6-61TransferOregon State10-1.6-0.4
3255Josh KoriG6-40FreshmanHigh school4-2.5-0.2
3482Will GoodeF6-90FreshmanHigh school5-2.4-0.3
4139Chris DockeryG6-63ReturningKansas City13-2.1-0.7
4300Cory Curtis Jr.F6-42Other newcomer7-3.3-0.5
4372Kernan BundyG6-22ReturningKansas City6-3.6-0.5
4401Max SimsF6-63Other newcomer7-3.4-0.6
4450Jason HilliardF6-70Other newcomer7-3.5-0.6
4649Kasheem Grady IIG6-52ReturningKansas City16-2.6-1.0
4745Karmello BranchG6-41ReturningKansas City18-2.6-1.2
4881Trey Booker-LoweryG6-71ReturningKansas City5-5.6-0.7
4909Jamaria ClarkG6-21ReturningKansas City6-5.2-0.8
4915Addarin ScottF6-83ReturningKansas City6-5.1-0.8
5180CJ EvansG5-111ReturningKansas City17-4.6-2.0

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02atCreighton #41-22.93%
Fri Nov 06vsSouthern Illinois #206+0.451%
Mon Nov 09atJacksonville #253-10.121%
Wed Nov 11NFlorida A&M #336+0.050%
Thu Nov 12NGeorge Mason #107-9.223%
Fri Nov 20atIona #282-8.824%
Tue Nov 24vsGreen Bay #281+2.959%
Sat Nov 28vsSoutheast Missouri State #219+0.752%
Sat Dec 05NDuquesne #156-7.527%
Tue Dec 08vsDenver #240+1.655%
Wed Dec 09vsEastern Illinois #324+5.166%
Sat Dec 12atSoutheast Missouri State #219-10.919%
Sat Dec 19vsLindenwood #258+2.257%
Mon Dec 21vsSIU Edwardsville #234+1.555%
Thu Jan 07vsSouth Dakota State #213conf-2.542%
Sat Jan 09vsSouth Dakota #322conf+2.057%
Thu Jan 14atNorth Dakota State #225conf-7.128%
Sat Jan 16atNorth Dakota #310conf-3.937%
Thu Jan 21vsOmaha #274conf-0.449%
Sat Jan 23vsSt. Thomas-Minnesota #130conf-5.932%
Sat Jan 30vsOral Roberts #323conf+2.056%
Thu Feb 04atSouth Dakota #322conf-4.037%
Sat Feb 06atSouth Dakota State #213conf-7.727%
Thu Feb 11vsNorth Dakota #310conf+1.354%
Sat Feb 13vsNorth Dakota State #225conf-2.243%
Thu Feb 18atSt. Thomas-Minnesota #130conf-11.318%
Sun Feb 21atOmaha #274conf-5.234%
Sat Feb 27atOral Roberts #323conf-2.841%

Projected margin is from Kansas City's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.