Roster Math

Teams › Big Sky · Compare Montana State with another team

Montana State

Montana State returns 86% of last season's minutes and rates #115 on offense and #220 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -5.7 to +9.0.

+1.6
Rating · #138 of 365
+2.5
Offense · #115
-0.9
Defense · #220
-5.7 to +9.0
80% range
<1%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
15-14
Projected record · 10 to 20 wins
12-8
Projected in Big Sky · 8 to 16 wins

Why we have them here

Montana State's preseason projection of +1.6 (No. 138 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +2.0, more than the +1.1 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 109 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.8, more than its neighbours' +0.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -1.6. It returns 86% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (50%). The projection leans most on Davian Brown (+3.0), Jeremiah Davis (+1.5) and Christian King (+0.7); the newcomer who matters most is London Praytor, a transfer from Toledo, at -0.1. Its 80% range, -5.7 to +9.0, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 81% · Transfer 7% · Other newcomer 12%

Davian Brown+3.0
Jeremiah Davis+1.5
Christian King+0.7
Jaden Steppe+0.5
Seth Amunrud+0.3
London Praytor-0.1
Waka Mbatch-0.1
Howie Keene-0.1
DJ Johnson-0.1
CJ Purdie-0.1
Hale Hansen-0.2
Isaiah Crane-0.2
Cavin Holden-0.2
James Steward-0.2
Calum Rutherfurd-0.2
Darnez Slater-0.5
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
237Davian BrownG6-31ReturningMontana State24+4.9+3.0
685Jeremiah DavisG6-42ReturningMontana State26+2.3+1.5
1075Christian KingF6-81ReturningMontana State24+1.1+0.7
1170Jaden SteppeF6-82ReturningMontana State19+1.0+0.5
1254Seth AmunrudG6-31ReturningMontana State20+0.7+0.3
1881Waka MbatchF6-103ReturningMontana State12-0.3-0.1
1888London PraytorF7-01TransferToledo7-0.4-0.1
1920Howie KeeneG6-71ReturningMontana State13-0.3-0.1
2026Cavin HoldenG6-21ReturningMontana State19-0.4-0.2
2204DJ JohnsonF6-10Other newcomer4-1.1-0.1
2357CJ PurdieF6-40Other newcomer5-1.2-0.1
2408Hale HansenF6-50Other newcomer5-1.3-0.2
2423Isaiah CraneG6-13Other newcomer5-1.3-0.2
2630James StewardF6-80Other newcomer5-1.5-0.2
2913Calum RutherfurdF6-112ReturningMontana State5-1.9-0.2
4095Darnez SlaterG6-31TransferColorado State7-2.9-0.5

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02atColorado State #67-10.719%
Sat Nov 07vsLong Beach State #278+10.781%
Thu Nov 12atBYU #23-19.56%
Sun Nov 15vsCal Poly #223+9.477%
Tue Nov 17atGonzaga #14-19.26%
Thu Nov 19atHigh Point #40-14.811%
Mon Nov 30atSouth Dakota #322+0.853%
Sat Dec 05atNorthern Arizona #307conf+3.160%
Fri Dec 11atSan Diego State #81-10.520%
Sun Dec 20vsNorth Dakota #310+12.184%
Thu Dec 31vsPortland State #186conf+4.564%
Sat Jan 02vsNorthern Colorado #128conf+2.257%
Thu Jan 07atIdaho State #261conf+1.856%
Sat Jan 09atWeber State #233conf+0.150%
Thu Jan 14vsEastern Washington #146conf+3.160%
Sat Jan 16vsIdaho #251conf+6.570%
Mon Jan 18atSouthern Utah #292conf+3.160%
Sat Jan 23vsMontana #222conf+5.668%
Mon Jan 25vsUtah Tech #275conf+7.573%
Thu Jan 28vsNorthern Arizona #307conf+8.375%
Thu Feb 04atNorthern Colorado #128conf-2.343%
Sat Feb 06atPortland State #186conf-1.445%
Thu Feb 11atIdaho #251conf+1.756%
Sat Feb 13atEastern Washington #146conf-2.741%
Thu Feb 18vsWeber State #233conf+6.370%
Sat Feb 20vsIdaho State #261conf+6.771%
Mon Feb 22vsSouthern Utah #292conf+8.475%
Sat Feb 27atMontana #222conf+0.351%
Mon Mar 01atUtah Tech #275conf+2.257%

Projected margin is from Montana State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.