Teams › Mountain West · Compare UC Davis with another team
UC Davis
UC Davis returns 78% of last season's minutes and rates #286 on offense and #212 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -11.6 to +3.2.
Why we have them here
UC Davis's preseason projection of -4.2 (No. 255 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -3.1, about the -2.7 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 213 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.5, about its neighbours' -0.8; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -0.9. It returns 78% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (68%). The projection leans most on Brayden Fagbemi (+0.8), Isaiah Chappell (+0.7) and Clarence Massamba (+0.1); the newcomer who matters most is Clarence Massamba, a transfer from Tennessee, at +0.1. Its 80% range, -11.6 to +3.2, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 73% · Transfer 6% · Other newcomer 5%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 976 | Brayden Fagbemi | G | 6-0 | 2 | Returning | UC Davis | 24 | +1.4 | +0.8 |
| 1041 | Isaiah Chappell | F | 6-9 | 2 | Returning | UC Davis | 24 | +1.2 | +0.7 |
| 1529 | Clarence Massamba | G | 6-5 | 1 | Transfer | Tennessee | 12 | +0.2 | +0.1 |
| 3672 | Jalen Stokes | G | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | UC Davis | 16 | -1.5 | -0.6 |
| 3865 | Ylan Esso-Essis | F | 6-8 | 0 | Other newcomer | 11 | -2.0 | -0.5 | |
| 3871 | Abdullah Amzil | F | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | UC Davis | 9 | -2.3 | -0.5 |
| 3918 | Connor Sevilla | G | 6-0 | 3 | Returning | UC Davis | 26 | -1.3 | -0.9 |
| 4348 | Jonathan Noudjihidi | C | 6-11 | 1 | Returning | UC Davis | 9 | -2.9 | -0.7 |
| 4360 | Chase Rawlins | G | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | UC Davis | 10 | -2.8 | -0.7 |
| 4818 | Cyril Franklin Jr. | G | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | UC Davis | 10 | -3.7 | -0.9 |
| 4880 | Omer Suljanovic | F | 6-8 | 1 | Returning | UC Davis | 16 | -3.1 | -1.2 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  North Alabama #332 | +8.1 | 75% | |
| Wed Nov 11 | vs |  Incarnate Word #308 | +6.8 | 71% | |
| Sat Nov 14 | at |  Sacramento State #199 | -7.8 | 27% | |
| Tue Nov 17 | vs |  Alabama State #340 | +8.8 | 76% | |
| Wed Nov 25 | N |  Omaha #274 | +0.7 | 52% | |
| Thu Nov 26 | N |  Jacksonville State #203 | -1.6 | 45% | |
| Fri Nov 27 | N |  Pacific #175 | -2.5 | 42% | |
| Tue Dec 01 | vs |  Portland #339 | +8.9 | 76% | |
| Thu Dec 03 | at |  North Dakota State #225 | -6.4 | 30% | |
| Mon Dec 14 | vs |  California Baptist #157 | +1.4 | 54% | |
| Thu Dec 17 | vs |  Idaho State #261 | +4.9 | 65% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | at |  Seattle U #111 | -11.8 | 17% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  Grand Canyon #59 | conf | -8.6 | 24% |
| Tue Jan 05 | vs |  Hawai'i #179 | conf | -0.8 | 47% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  New Mexico #50 | conf | -14.8 | 12% |
| Tue Jan 12 | at |  Wyoming #121 | conf | -7.7 | 27% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  San José State #187 | conf | -0.6 | 48% |
| Tue Jan 19 | vs |  UNLV #139 | conf | -2.5 | 42% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  UTEP #237 | conf | -2.4 | 42% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at | Hawai'i #179 | conf | -5.1 | 34% |
| Tue Feb 02 | vs |  Nevada #66 | conf | -7.9 | 26% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs |  Air Force #357 | conf | +8.1 | 74% |
| Tue Feb 09 | at | San José State #187 | conf | -4.4 | 36% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | UTEP #237 | conf | +1.2 | 54% |
| Tue Feb 16 | at | Nevada #66 | conf | -12.7 | 15% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at | Air Force #357 | conf | +5.2 | 66% |
| Tue Feb 23 | vs | Wyoming #121 | conf | -3.2 | 40% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs | New Mexico #50 | conf | -10.1 | 21% |
| Tue Mar 02 | at | UNLV #139 | conf | -7.0 | 29% |
| Sat Mar 06 | at | Grand Canyon #59 | conf | -13.2 | 14% |
Projected margin is from UC Davis's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.