Teams › Big Sky · Compare Northern Arizona with another team
Northern Arizona
Northern Arizona returns 65% of last season's minutes and rates #284 on offense and #308 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -14.3 to +0.1.
Why we have them here
Northern Arizona's preseason projection of -7.1 (No. 307 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -4.1, about the -4.6 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 335 at the end of 2025-26) adds -2.1, about its neighbours' -1.4; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -1.2. It returns 65% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (70%). The projection leans most on Ryan Abelman (+1.1), Cade Bennett (+0.1) and Dylan Anderson (-0.1); the newcomer who matters most is Cade Bennett, a transfer from Saint Mary's, at +0.1. Its 80% range, -14.3 to +0.1, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 65% · Transfer 7% · Other newcomer 28%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 875 | Ryan Abelman | G | 6-4 | 3 | Returning | Northern Arizona | 25 | +1.7 | +1.1 |
| 1425 | Cade Bennett | G | 6-0 | 3 | Transfer | Saint Mary's | 7 | +0.5 | +0.1 |
| 2043 | Dylan Anderson | C | 7-0 | 4 | Transfer | Murray State | 7 | -0.6 | -0.1 |
| 2749 | Traivar Jackson | F | 6-7 | 3 | Returning | Northern Arizona | 17 | -0.9 | -0.4 |
| 3261 | Chris Komin | G | 6-3 | 1 | Returning | Northern Arizona | 20 | -1.1 | -0.6 |
| 3362 | JT Amundsen | G | 5-8 | 1 | Returning | Northern Arizona | 3 | -3.0 | -0.2 |
| 3422 | Brennan Peterson | G | 6-0 | 1 | Returning | Northern Arizona | 15 | -1.4 | -0.5 |
| 3655 | Johnny Mautz | F | 6-1 | 0 | Other newcomer | 7 | -2.3 | -0.4 | |
| 3657 | Noah George | F | 6-2 | 0 | Other newcomer | 6 | -2.4 | -0.4 | |
| 3949 | Luke Wieskamp | F | 6-6 | 1 | Other newcomer | 7 | -2.6 | -0.5 | |
| 4077 | Lucas Toukam | F | 6-8 | 0 | Other newcomer | 7 | -2.8 | -0.5 | |
| 4091 | Mason Dorsey | G | 6-4 | 3 | Other newcomer | 7 | -2.8 | -0.5 | |
| 4106 | Erez Poran | G | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | Northern Arizona | 4 | -3.6 | -0.4 |
| 4131 | Zach Tanner | F | 6-9 | 0 | Other newcomer | 7 | -2.8 | -0.5 | |
| 4178 | Walker Timme | F | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | Northern Arizona | 5 | -3.5 | -0.4 |
| 4190 | Nana Keutcha | F | 6-10 | 0 | Other newcomer | 7 | -2.9 | -0.5 | |
| 4190 | Karl Poom | F | 6-8 | 2 | Returning | Northern Arizona | 17 | -1.9 | -0.8 |
| 4190 | Tamiel Green | F | 6-10 | 0 | Other newcomer | 7 | -2.9 | -0.5 | |
| 4364 | Arne Osojnik | G | 6-6 | 3 | Returning | Northern Arizona | 12 | -2.5 | -0.8 |
| 4965 | Kavon Bradford | G | 6-1 | 2 | Returning | Northern Arizona | 11 | -4.0 | -1.1 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Nov 03 | at |  UNLV #139 | -11.6 | 17% | |
| Sat Nov 07 | at |  New Mexico #50 | -18.9 | 6% | |
| Tue Nov 10 | at |  Arizona #3 | -28.7 | <1% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | at |  Kentucky #22 | -23.7 | 3% | |
| Sat Nov 21 | at |  Cal Poly #223 | -8.7 | 24% | |
| Sat Nov 28 | at |  Cal State Bakersfield #328 | -5.6 | 32% | |
| Thu Dec 03 | vs |  Montana #222 | conf | -0.4 | 49% |
| Sat Dec 05 | vs |  Montana State #138 | conf | -3.1 | 40% |
| Wed Dec 16 | at |  West Virginia #48 | -18.4 | 6% | |
| Mon Dec 21 | at |  Iowa State #9 | -25.7 | 2% | |
| Thu Dec 31 | at |  Weber State #233 | conf | -5.8 | 32% |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  Idaho State #261 | conf | -3.8 | 38% |
| Thu Jan 07 | at |  Eastern Washington #146 | conf | -8.4 | 25% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  Idaho #251 | conf | -4.1 | 37% |
| Thu Jan 14 | vs |  Utah Tech #275 | conf | +1.4 | 54% |
| Thu Jan 21 | at |  Portland State #186 | conf | -7.2 | 28% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs |  Northern Colorado #128 | conf | -3.8 | 38% |
| Thu Jan 28 | at | Montana State #138 | conf | -8.3 | 25% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at | Montana #222 | conf | -5.6 | 33% |
| Thu Feb 04 | vs | Idaho State #261 | conf | +0.9 | 53% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs | Weber State #233 | conf | +0.1 | 50% |
| Mon Feb 08 | vs |  Southern Utah #292 | conf | +2.2 | 57% |
| Thu Feb 11 | at | Utah Tech #275 | conf | -3.7 | 38% |
| Thu Feb 18 | vs | Idaho #251 | conf | +0.5 | 52% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs | Eastern Washington #146 | conf | -2.9 | 41% |
| Mon Feb 22 | vs | Portland State #186 | conf | -1.5 | 45% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | Southern Utah #292 | conf | -2.9 | 41% |
| Mon Mar 01 | at | Northern Colorado #128 | conf | -8.1 | 25% |
Projected margin is from Northern Arizona's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.